Average EV does not show how often an opening actually reaches that average. Rip Risk plots the modeled distribution after complete box contents are drawn and then Sift is applied. Unsupported products are omitted instead of being approximated from expected-copy rows.
Patreon preview
A server-selected 10% preview sample is sent to the browser. Where sorting or filtering is available, it applies only to that sample. Full paid rows are not sent until you log in with the ProTool Tier or higher on Patreon.
The readable sample is fixed to gross modeled value and the saved acquisition cost. Custom cost, fee, value-mode, and chart controls are available with ProTools access. Product and post-draw Sift selections still update the preview; coverage and model limitations remain visible below.
1 of 1 selected artifact available in this view. Snapshot, generation, model, and simulation provenance appears below each product.
| Product | Acquisition cost | Mean | Median | P10 / P25 / P75 / P90 | Recover 50 / 75 / 100% | Expected down / up | Top 1 / 5 / 10 share | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic 2010 (M10) Booster BoxM10 · schema v1 · 10000 simulationsPrice snapshot 2026-08-29T20:42:55+00:00 · simulated 2026-08-29T21:20:21+00:00Model 84f57ce4b4ff · price data e00d1ca57ad2 | TCGplayer low | $204.44 | $203.04 | $160.36 / $179.94 / $227.94 / $249.85 | 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | $725.56 / $0.00 | 7.6% / 31.8% / 53.2% | 100.0% |
The same canonical classic_15_card config used by the deterministic model: uniform independent draws within current rarity pools, plus the explicit 7:1 rare/mythic branch.