Population analytics • sourced card observations

Pack Destruction Tracker
Estimate how many packs have been opened using PSA grading data

This sensitivity tool combines PSA counts reported by PriceCharting with set-specific pull-rate estimates and adjustable grading-capture assumptions. It produces an illustrative proxy for pack openings, not a measured market total. Each set shows which inputs are usable and which still need evidence. Expand a set to inspect the cards, source links, and review dates behind its estimate.

Adjustable capture assumptions Set level opening estimates Expandable card evidence

Assumptions

Sensitivity presets only; these percentages are not measured market-share or submission-rate findings.
55%
Assumed PSA share among graded copies of these English cards. An overall grading-industry market share would not establish this value.
40%
Assumed share of pulled copies already graded and reflected in the population report. Recent openings may not have reached the report yet.
Combined Capture Rate (PSA Market Share × Grading Rate) 22.0%

The opening estimate moves inversely with the combined capture rate. Compare scenarios instead of treating the default as a factual point estimate.

Data Source

Loading reviewed observations

Population source: PriceCharting, reporting PSA counts. Its reports update monthly, but do not disclose the population date. “Evidence checked” records when we reviewed the source, not when PSA updated it. The page uses PSA counts only; CGC counts are not substituted.

Estimates require a supported pull rate and a usable population observation checked within 90 days. Missing or unverified inputs show as unavailable.

Estimated Pack Destruction by Set

Use a set's expand button to see every tracked card and its evidence. Estimates pool only the eligible cards. 36-pack equivalents are a volume comparison, including for sets that have no booster box.

Scenario ranges combine the lower and higher capture presets (11.25%–35.75%) with verified pull-rate intervals where available, and include your current capture setting. They are sensitivity ranges, not confidence intervals for total openings. Card-to-card spread is shown separately.

Illustrative Pokemon pack openings and 36-pack equivalents, with scenario ranges, card coverage, and population evidence.
Set Release Date Population As Of Cards Used PSA 10 Share Est. Packs Opened 36-Pack Equivalents

Methodology

Why Special Illustration Rares?

We track a small selection of Special Illustration Rares with identifiable English printings and card-specific population reports. These cards provide a proxy for openings, but card value, condition, submission preferences, and grading delays can make their estimates differ substantially. Special Illustration Rare and Hyper Rare are different rarities; this tracker uses the former.

Capture-rate disclosure: no source establishes the page's PSA-share or grading-submission percentages. The presets are deliberately labeled illustrative and exist to expose sensitivity.

The Formula

Estimated Packs Opened = Sum of Eligible PSA Pops ÷ Sum of Their Per-Card Rates ÷ Capture Rate
Capture Rate = PSA Share × Share Already Graded and Reported

Pooling relates the total reported copies to their combined expected copies per pack. This equals the card average when all per-card rates match. Pull-rate uncertainty is shared by the set, so adding cards does not narrow that uncertainty. God packs require a copies-per-pack rate; a chance of finding at least one hit is not interchangeable.

The card spread compares the lowest and highest card estimates under the same assumptions. A spread of 2× or more is flagged for review; this is a screening threshold, not a statistical test. One-card results cannot provide this cross-check. Coverage shows how many cards were used out of the full rarity pool, not just the selected watchlist.

Known Limitations

  • Not every pulled card gets graded — especially lower-value copies, damaged cards, or cards held by casual collectors.
  • PSA isn't the only grading company. CGC, Beckett (BGS), and others capture a portion of submissions that aren't counted here.
  • Resubmissions and crossovers can inflate pop counts — one physical card may appear multiple times.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced estimates. The Pokémon Company does not officially publish exact rates for every print run.
  • Print run changes, reprintings, and promotional pack differences all affect the accuracy of any estimate.
  • Pooling selected cards does not remove grading bias. The cards may have different submission rates; scenario ranges do not measure that bias or establish a market total. PSA 10 share is descriptive and does not calibrate the capture rate.
  • Published pull-rate intervals describe the opening study, conditional on uniform card allocation. They do not capture unknown population dates, resubmissions, grading delays, uneven card allocation, or changes between print runs. Missing study intervals are explicitly labeled.

Data Freshness

The site publishes curated observations as a local snapshot. Regenerating that snapshot does not fetch new PSA counts or change their review dates. The linked reports must be reviewed again to update the inputs. Snapshots before September 14, 2026 used unsupported data and are not a validated time series.