THE EXPECTED VALUE / SPORTS
2025 Topps Holiday Baseball Retail Collector Tin
Complete tin simulation · Source-backed baseline exclusions
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Tin contents
View the card slot breakdown
A slot is a place for a card in the tin. These counts are averages across many tins; the mix in one tin can vary.
| Card slot | Average cards / tin | Eligible card versions |
|---|
Excluded cards are removed from the model, and eligible alternatives in the same slot take their place before drawing. Your filters apply after the complete tin is drawn, without replacing filtered cards. View model assumptions and sources.
Calculate your tin
Estimate the value of the cards you keep. Results update automatically when you change a setting.
EV (expected value) is the average card return across simulated tins. Prices are for ungraded cards. Selling fees apply to the cards you keep; cards without a usable price count as $0.
Each complete tin is drawn first. Sift and filters then remove cards without replacing them.
Simulation results
Run the calculator to see results.
Tin values after your Sift, filters and selling fees.
Checking Raw prices…
About 8 in 10 simulated tins fall between low and high; more can fall inside when tins share the same value. Your actual tin can return less or more.
Tin EV
| Unit | Low | Average (Mid) | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tin EV | — | — | — |
| Tin EV | — | — | — |
Values for one complete sealed 59-card retail collector tin, after Sift, filters and selling fees.
- Card value before fees / tin
- —
- Selling fees / tin
- —
- Average profit / loss
- Enter tin cost
- Tin cost ÷ average return
- Enter tin cost
What could a tin return?
Simulated tin values after filters and fees. Select a bar to inspect a range.
See the first simulated tin
All drawn cards appear here, including cards removed by your filters.
Tin price / EV (P/E)
Compare all sports boxesCompare the cost of a sealed tin with its average card return. P/E below 1 means the tin costs less than its modeled return; it does not guarantee profit. Tin prices exclude shipping and tax.
Checking tin comparisons…
| Marketplace | Tin price | Average tin return | P/E | Shop |
|---|
Shopping searches are not verified offers. Verify the exact tin and format. Prices and availability can change; the price shown on Amazon at purchase applies. We may earn commissions from eBay links. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.
Card value breakdown
Checking card value details…
ProTools shows how much each rarity or treatment contributes to tin value. Unlock with ProTools.
Modeled EV / tin: —
| Card group | EV / tin | Share of value |
|---|
Uses modeled average card counts after your current Sift, autograph filter and selling fees. This expected-value total can differ from the simulated average. Unpriced cards are assumed unsold ($0 EV). Card search and table filters do not change this breakdown.
Cards in this tin
Filter by price or contribution
Browse the checklist free. ProTools unlocks prices and value contributions.
| Card | Number | Treatment | Rarity | Numbered run | Expected / tin | Raw price | EV / tin | History |
|---|
Model & sources
Documented excluded outcomes are removed before drawing. Eligible replacements are normalized in the same slot, preserving the complete product count. The model's applicable baseline policy is shown below.
Model assumptions
Slot construction
Exclusions
Source evidence
Raw prices, daily valuations, comparable sales and provider estimates are separate data. Unknown or unusable Raw quotes stay unavailable. Under the current selling assumption, those drawn cards are not sold and contribute $0 to EV. Price coverage can change as snapshots age.