THE EXPECTED VALUE / SPORTS
2025 Topps Holiday Baseball Ecomm 3-Tin Gifting Box
Complete box simulation · Source-backed baseline exclusions
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Box contents
View the card slot breakdown
A slot is a place for a card in the box. These counts are averages across many boxes; the mix in one box can vary.
| Card slot | Average cards / box | Eligible card versions |
|---|
Excluded cards are removed from the model, and eligible alternatives in the same slot take their place before drawing. Your filters apply after the complete box is drawn, without replacing filtered cards. View model assumptions and sources.
Calculate your box
Estimate the value of the cards you keep. Results update automatically when you change a setting.
EV (expected value) is the average card return across simulated boxes. Prices are for ungraded cards. Selling fees apply to the cards you keep; cards without a usable price count as $0.
Each complete box is drawn first. Sift and filters then remove cards without replacing them.
Simulation results
Run the calculator to see results.
Box values after your Sift, filters and selling fees.
Checking Raw prices…
About 8 in 10 simulated boxes fall between low and high; more can fall inside when boxes share the same value. Your actual box can return less or more.
Pack & Box EV
| Unit | Low | Average (Mid) | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV | — | — | — |
| Box EV | — | — | — |
Values after Sift, filters and selling fees. Pack EV is the box average divided by its pack count. Separate low/high pack returns are not modeled.
- Card value before fees / box
- —
- Selling fees / box
- —
- Average profit / loss
- Enter box cost
- Box cost ÷ average return
- Enter box cost
What could a box return?
Simulated box values after filters and fees. Select a bar to inspect a range.
See the first simulated box
All drawn cards appear here, including cards removed by your filters.
Box price / EV (P/E)
Compare all sports boxesCompare the cost of a sealed box with its average card return. P/E below 1 means the box costs less than its modeled return; it does not guarantee profit. Box prices exclude shipping and tax.
Checking box comparisons…
| Marketplace | Box price | Average box return | P/E | Shop |
|---|
Shopping searches are not verified offers. Verify the exact box and format. Prices and availability can change; the price shown on Amazon at purchase applies. We may earn commissions from eBay links. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.
Card value breakdown
Checking card value details…
ProTools shows how much each rarity or treatment contributes to box value. Unlock with ProTools.
Modeled EV / box: —
| Card group | EV / box | Share of value |
|---|
Uses modeled average card counts after your current Sift, autograph filter and selling fees. This expected-value total can differ from the simulated average. Unpriced cards are assumed unsold ($0 EV). Card search and table filters do not change this breakdown.
Cards in this box
Filter by price or contribution
Browse the checklist free. ProTools unlocks prices and value contributions.
| Card | Number | Treatment | Rarity | Numbered run | Expected / box | Raw price | EV / box | History |
|---|
Model & sources
Documented excluded outcomes are removed before drawing. Eligible replacements are normalized in the same slot, preserving the complete product count. The model's applicable baseline policy is shown below.
Model assumptions
Slot construction
Exclusions
Source evidence
Raw prices, daily valuations, comparable sales and provider estimates are separate data. Unknown or unusable Raw quotes stay unavailable. Under the current selling assumption, those drawn cards are not sold and contribute $0 to EV. Price coverage can change as snapshots age.