Yu-Gi-Oh! / Booster Display
Phantom Nightmare Booster Box [1st Edition] EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
- Release
- February 9, 2024
- Market scope
- English / English North America / English North American product; exact manufacturer printing wave undisclosed
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Best Evidence — Owner-approved ordinary box model
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — Owner-approved ordinary box modelReviewed October 5, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline2 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/yugioh/phantom-nightmare/models/booster-display-owner-model-no-chase.json
Best Evidence — Owner-approved ordinary box model
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — Owner-approved ordinary box model reviewed October 5, 2026.
Sources
- Phantom Nightmare - North American product page - Konami Digital Entertainment, Inc. (accessed 2026-07-22)
- TCGCSV Yu-Gi-Oh! category groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Phantom Nightmare products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- PHNI exact ordinary/premium SKU and packaging review - TCGCSV / The Expected Value (accessed 2026-10-05)
- Owner-approved 2 Secret / 4 Ultra ordinary box assumption - The Expected Value repository owner (accessed 2026-10-05)
- Phantom Nightmare exact 24-pack nine-card configuration - TCGplayer (accessed 2026-10-05)
Limitations
- Owner-approved ordinary box estimate: 2 Secrets, 4 Ultras, 18 Supers and 192 Commons. Fixed simulation counts are modeling assumptions, not publisher odds, measured recipient rates or factory guarantees; no empirical sample is claimed.
- The exact English 1st Edition box has 24 nine-card packs (216 cards). Assume eight Commons and one ordinary foil per pack; 18 Supers = 24 - 2 - 4. Per-card print-sheet weights are unknown, so use equal positive weights within each eligible ordinary rarity pool.
- Premium cards and branches are chase-excluded before baseline construction. Normalize the retained ordinary pools, draw all 216 cards, then apply Sift and user filters without reroll or backfill. No premium probability or zero-value occupied outcome is retained.
- No short-print pattern, within-box placement, box/case correlation, manufacturer wave, US/Canada factory equivalence or Japanese OCG bonus is established. Exact TCGplayer 1st Edition identities/prices do not encode manufacturing territory; this is an English North American product estimate.
- This owner instruction independently supplies the recipe for this recipient. No empirical rates or sample from BETB, BPRO or the partial PHHY case model are copied. Older hold research remains historical evidence, superseded only for this ordinary box model.
- Replace or withdraw on publisher odds, a complete attributable English North American product/printing-specific ordinary SKU ledger, credible contradictory collation, or a changed exact SKU inventory. Future inventory changes require review and fail closed.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
Historical Low-price review: these figures describe the printing pool and observation date used for the original review. They do not establish current price availability or completeness of a later corrected model. Current selected-source coverage is shown separately after loading.
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (historical review)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (historical review)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- October 5, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Quarter Century Secret Rare
- Serialized cards
Basis: Premium cards and branches are chase-excluded before baseline construction. Normalize the retained ordinary pools, draw all 216 cards, then apply Sift and user filters without reroll or backfill. No premium probability or zero-value occupied outcome is retained.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 9
- Packs per box
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Phantom Nightmare Booster Box [1st Edition]
Product profile. This box resolves 216 card positions across 100 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 5, 2026 contains 50 Common, 26 Super Rare, 14 Ultra Rare, 10 Secret Rare. Its largest slot groups are 50 common, 26 super rare, 14 ultra rare, 10 secret rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Ages of Stars and Frost #PHNI-EN059 (3.84 expected per box), Aroma Blend #PHNI-EN068 (3.84 expected per box), Aroma Healing #PHNI-EN077 (3.84 expected per box), Ashened for Eternity #PHNI-EN096 (3.84 expected per box), Berserk Archfiend #PHNI-EN027 (3.84 expected per box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. aromalilith magnolia #PHNI-EN039, Awakening of Veidos #PHNI-EN095, Conbirdable #PHNI-EN084, Enigmaster Packbit #PHNI-EN042, Spirit of Yubel #PHNI-EN001, geistgrinder golem #PHNI-EN002, Samsara D Lotus #PHNI-EN003, raidraptor noir lanius #PHNI-EN004. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Low snapshot dated October 5, 2026, 100 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Veidos the Eruption Dragon of Extinction #PHNI-EN090 ($2.83), Raidraptor Rising Rebellion Falcon #PHNI-EN045 ($1.57), Enigmaster Packbit #PHNI-EN042 ($0.50), Promethean Princess Bestower of Flames #PHNI-EN052 ($0.43), Aromalilith Rosalina #PHNI-EN022 ($0.42). Together those five rows account for 42.9% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
boxes: 0 · Price/box: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/box after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.