Best evidence · No-chase model
hololive production Summer Collection Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this sealed product with an evidence-backed, no-chase model and compare its recalculated Low, Mid, and High range with your entered cost.
Best evidence / no chase
- Release
- August 30, 2024
- Product
- Booster Display
- Singles pricing
- TCGplayer Low
- Model
- Best evidence / no chase
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidencePublisher recipe + model assumptionReviewed July 24, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/weiss-schwarz/pb-hol2/models/booster-display-empirical-no-chase.json
Publisher recipe + model assumption
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher recipe + model assumption reviewed July 24, 2026.
Sources
- hololive production Summer Collection - English product page - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-07-22)
- TCGCSV Weiss Schwarz category groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV hololive production Summer Collection Premium Booster products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Owner-directed Weiss Schwarz ordinary-pool best-evidence classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-24)
Limitations
- Bushiroad publishes the physical recipe: 4 cards per pack, 6 packs per display, and 30 displays per carton.
- Bushiroad lists 53 normal card types and 106 parallel card types. Type counts do not establish pull probabilities, replacement rules, per-display guarantees, or within-pool card weights.
- The reviewed publisher territory includes the United States and Canada. This record does not generalize rates to other English territories.
- Exact premium pack and display identities.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-07-24: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- No-chase policy approved 2026-07-24: signed, serialized, hot-stamped, premium, special, secret-plus, parallel, promotional, and equivalent chase cards and branches do not exist in this model. The exact physical card count is drawn only from the supported ordinary pool; there is no simulated chase hit, zero-EV occupied outcome, redraw, backfill, or renormalization.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
- Best-evidence Weiss Schwarz baseline approved 2026-07-24: the publisher's exact cards-per-pack and packs-per-display are modeled as ordinary draws from the exact English TCGCSV normal-card pool. This is a transparent assumption-based estimate, not a claim about factory rarity collation, replacement rules, display guarantees, or pack correlation.
- When multiple ordinary physical variants share one published card number, their positive weights divide one card-number weight equally so variants do not inflate the publisher's normal-card type count.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- July 24, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Cards outside the supported ordinary recipe
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 4
- Packs per booster display
- 6
- Booster Displays per case
- 30
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives hololive production Summer Collection Booster Display
Product profile. This booster display resolves 24 card positions across 53 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 24, 2026 contains 53 Normal. Its largest slot groups are 53 normal. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Summer Splash Party Airani Iofifteen (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E50 N (0.453 expected per booster display), Summer Splash Party Akai Haato (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E33 N (0.453 expected per booster display), Summer Splash Party Aki Rosenthal (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E14 N (0.453 expected per booster display), Summer Splash Party Amane Kanata (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E02 N (0.453 expected per booster display), Summer Splash Party Anya Melfissa (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E32 N (0.453 expected per booster display). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Summer Splash Party Ayunda Risu (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E47 N, Summer Splash Party Hakui Koyori (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E01 N, Summer Splash Party Laplus Darknesss (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E03 N, Summer Splash Party Mori Calliope (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E04 N, Summer Splash Party Shiranui Flare (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E05 N, Summer Splash Party Takanashi Kiara (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E06 N, Summer Splash Party Natsuiro Matsuri (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E07 N, Summer Splash Party Inugami Korone (Standard Frame) #HOL/WE44-E08 N. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
How to read the pool. The named examples above distinguish this release from neighboring calculators. Live marketplace values still load in the calculator, while this editorial snapshot stays focused on the reviewed product structure and does not turn a temporary price into a permanent claim.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 6 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.