Best evidence · No-chase model
BanG Dream! 10th Anniversary! Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this sealed product with an evidence-backed, no-chase model and compare its recalculated Low, Mid, and High range with your entered cost.
Best evidence / no chase
- Release
- July 17, 2026
- Product
- Booster Display
- Singles pricing
- TCGplayer Low
- Model
- Best evidence / no chase
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — English premium pack structureReviewed September 4, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline2 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/weiss-schwarz/pb-bd10/models/booster-display-empirical-no-chase.json
Best Evidence — English premium pack structure
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — English premium pack structure reviewed September 4, 2026.
Sources
- BanG Dream! 10th Anniversary! - English product page - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
- TCGCSV Weiss Schwarz category groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV BanG Dream! 10th Anniversary! Premium Booster products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — English premium pack structure and exact English Normal/BDR classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English BD10 Normal, BDR, SP, SSP and SIR card identities - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Japanese BD10 wrapper comparison; AGR is not the English SIR identity - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
Limitations
- Best Evidence — English premium pack structure: the July 17, 2026 English BanG Dream! 10th Anniversary! premium release contains four cards per pack and six packs per display. Every pack guarantees a hot-stamped card. The retained model has three Normal positions and one BDR position per pack, totaling 24 cards per display.
- The three-Normal residual layout is an explicit interpretation of the four-card wrapper and hot-stamped guarantee, not a publisher statement about all possible extra hits. Remove all 50 SP, ten SSP and the serialized SIR identity before drawing; normalize the guaranteed hot-stamped position over the 60 regular BDR identities. BDR is a retained premium outcome, not an excluded SP or serialized chase family.
- The English pool contains 60 exact Normal identities E01-E60 and 60 distinct BDR identities E01BDR-E60BDR, with no ordinary art-letter variants. Equal number weights within each separate pool and independent draws are assumptions. Checklist counts identify cards and do not establish pull probabilities. Exact sheet weights, extra-hit frequencies, SP/SSP/SIR rates, box seeding and case correlations are unknown; simulated spreads do not reproduce measured factory collation.
- The Japanese product has the same four-card/six-pack wrapper, but lists AGR instead of the English SIR. No Japanese AGR identity, price, or rate enters the English model. English publisher evidence supplies the hot-stamped guarantee; no Japanese probability proxy is adopted.
- All 120 retained exact English SKU identities require positive TCGplayer Low at their actual Normal price subtype. BDR remains Foil even though TCGplayer names its price subtype Normal. Missing or zero required Low blocks classification; no ordinary or BDR card is silently removed, no alternate finish or market price is substituted, and rarity stays separate from frame/style treatment.
- The English product page specifies no display or carton bonus card. No PR, external promotion, or extra topper is added. The embedded four-card pack uses three Normal and one BDR draw; display EV is six times pack EV under the same assumptions.
- Normalize retained Normal and BDR weights separately before drawing the complete four-card pack or 24-card display. No SIR, SP, SSP or zero-EV occupied outcome remains. Apply Sift and user filters only after the complete physical draw, without rerolling or backfilling filtered cards.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 3, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Cards outside the supported ordinary recipe
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 4
- Packs per booster display
- 6
- Booster Displays per case
- 30
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives BanG Dream! 10th Anniversary! Booster Display
Product profile. This booster display resolves 24 card positions across 120 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 3, 2026 contains 60 Band Rare, 60 Normal. Its largest slot groups are 60 band rare, 60 normal. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. A Different Classroom Rimi Ushigome (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E37 (0.300 expected per booster display), A Story We Paint Together Aya Maruyama (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E30 (0.300 expected per booster display), Adventus (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E39 (0.300 expected per booster display), Beautiful Dolls Amoris (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E36 (0.300 expected per booster display), Beautiful Dolls Doloris (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E27 (0.300 expected per booster display). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. A Different Classroom Rimi Ushigome BDR, Beautiful Dolls Mortis (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E18, Limitless Happiness Hagumi Kitazawa (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E01, Limitless Happiness Hagumi Kitazawa BDR, Days Spent Spreading Smiles Misaki Okusawa (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E02, Days Spent Spreading Smiles Misaki Okusawa BDR, The Curtain of Nature Kaoru Seta (Standard Frame) #BD/WE49-E03, The Curtain of Nature Kaoru Seta BDR. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Current value concentration. At the TCGplayer Low snapshot dated September 3, 2026, 60 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Crimson Skies Beyond the Clouds Himari Uehara BDR ($1.10), Card Of Fate Tomori Takamatsu BDR ($0.70), Like You Maya Yamato BDR ($0.30), For the Sunkissed Blossom by Me Yukina Minato BDR ($0.29), With Gratitude in My Heart Ran Mitake BDR ($0.27). Together those five rows account for 26.3% of the modeled gross value, so changes in those cards can move the estimate materially.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 6 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.