Best evidence · No-chase model
Umamusume: Pretty Derby Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this sealed product with an evidence-backed, no-chase model and compare its recalculated Low, Mid, and High range with your entered cost.
Best evidence / no chase
- Release
- June 26, 2026
- Product
- Booster Display
- Singles pricing
- TCGplayer Low
- Model
- Best evidence / no chase
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — Assumed ordinary-card weightsReviewed September 4, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/weiss-schwarz/bp-uma/models/booster-display-empirical-no-chase.json
Best Evidence — Assumed ordinary-card weights
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — Assumed ordinary-card weights reviewed September 4, 2026.
Sources
- Umamusume: Pretty Derby - English product page - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
- TCGCSV Weiss Schwarz category groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Umamusume: Pretty Derby products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — Assumed ordinary-card weights and exact English ordinary/topper classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English Umamusume booster checklist including E156/E157 PR identities - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Original Japanese Umamusume has a different nine-card and sixteen-pack wrapper; no rates adopted - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
Limitations
- Best Evidence — Assumed ordinary-card weights: the June 26, 2026 English Umamusume: Pretty Derby release has eight cards per pack, twelve packs per display, and one of two exclusive PR display toppers. The modeled display contains 97 game cards and the embedded pack contains eight.
- No complete English eight-card rarity ledger was found. The original June 30, 2023 Japanese release contains nine cards per pack and sixteen packs per display; its different wrapper and matching checklist do not establish English rarity probabilities. The 2021 English nine-card specification also does not establish this release's eight-card recipe. No Japanese selection rate or older nine-card layout is adopted.
- All eight booster positions use the 155 retained ordinary English card numbers with assumed equal weights. This is an assumption-only ordinary-card estimate, not a reconstructed pack recipe or measured pull-rate model. The checklist has 45 Common, 43 Uncommon, 36 Rare, 14 Double Rare and 17 Climax Common cards; these counts verify identity coverage and do not establish rarity probabilities.
- Every exact English number E001-E155 has one ordinary physical SKU. Require the exact product ID, number, rarity, and positive Normal-subtype TCGplayer Low price. Uppercase parallel suffixes, alternate English or Japanese numbers, trial-deck TE numbers, PE promotions and altered metadata cannot enter the ordinary pool. Missing or zero ordinary prices block classification rather than silently omitting a card.
- The display-only bonus is one nonfoil PR: E156 product 701956 or E157 product 701957. Their equal 1/2 selection weights are an assumption. Both exact positive Low rows are required. The bonus is not prorated into the embedded pack EV. PE01/PE01S and PE02/PE02S are outside the sealed display; the Going First/Going Second set is a carton bonus, not a guaranteed display or booster card, and has no modeled value.
- Remove all SP, OFR, RRR, SR and other unsupported chase/parallel identities before drawing; normalize the retained ordinary and topper pools. Every physical position stays filled. Draw the full eight-card pack or 97-card display before applying Sift or user filters, without rerolling or backfilling filtered cards. Independent draws and equal card weights are assumptions; the simulated spread does not represent measured pack or box collation, sheet frequencies, box seeding, or case correlations.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 3, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Cards outside the supported ordinary recipe
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 8
- Packs per booster display
- 12
- Booster Displays per case
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Umamusume: Pretty Derby Booster Display
Product profile. This booster display resolves 97 card positions across 157 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 3, 2026 contains 45 Common, 43 Uncommon, 36 Rare, 17 Climax Common, 14 Double Rare, 2 Promo. Its largest slot groups are 45 common, 43 uncommon, 36 rare, 17 climax common, 14 double rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. A Beautiful Ending CC #UMA/W106-E115 (0.619 expected per booster display), A Marvelous Plan Marvelous Sunday #UMA/W106-E088 (0.619 expected per booster display), A Pleasant Expedition CC #UMA/W106-E154 (0.619 expected per booster display), Adapt and Control Ikuno Dictus #UMA/W106-E106 (0.619 expected per booster display), Against the Odds CC #UMA/W106-E153 (0.619 expected per booster display). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Absolute Emperor Symboli Rudolf PR #UMA/W106-E157, Aim for the Brightest Admire Vega #UMA/W106-E045, Always Electrifying Ines Fujin #UMA/W106-E134, Bold Spitfire Kawakami Princess #UMA/W106-E022, Breakaway Battleship Gold Ship #UMA/W106-E121, Bustling Celebration of Red Leaves CC #UMA/W106-E076, Fairest Fleur Grass Wonder #UMA/W106-E001, Dear Mr CB Mr CB #UMA/W106-E002. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
How to read the pool. The named examples above distinguish this release from neighboring calculators. Live marketplace values still load in the calculator, while this editorial snapshot stays focused on the reviewed product structure and does not turn a temporary price into a permanent claim.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 12 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.