Best evidence · No-chase model
Frieren: Beyond Journey's End Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this sealed product with an evidence-backed, no-chase model and compare its recalculated Low, Mid, and High range with your entered cost.
Best evidence / no chase
- Release
- November 22, 2024
- Product
- Booster Display
- Singles pricing
- TCGplayer Low
- Model
- Best evidence / no chase
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidencePublisher recipe + model assumptionReviewed July 24, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/weiss-schwarz/bp-sfn/models/booster-display-empirical-no-chase.json
Publisher recipe + model assumption
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher recipe + model assumption reviewed July 24, 2026.
Sources
- Frieren: Beyond Journey's End - English product page - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-07-22)
- TCGCSV Weiss Schwarz category groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Frieren: Beyond Journey’s End products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Owner-directed Weiss Schwarz ordinary-pool best-evidence classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-24)
Limitations
- Bushiroad publishes the physical recipe: 8 cards per pack, 12 packs per display, and 24 displays per carton. The announced display extra is 1 of 6 Going First/Going Second cards; it is outside this ordinary-only no-chase model and does not add a 97th ordinary position. The separate Tournament Store Assist pack is a conditional store redemption, and the announced stitched playmat per carton is an accessory; neither receives modeled ordinary-card value.
- Bushiroad lists 111 normal card types and 111 parallel card types. The model contains 112 ordinary physical printings across 111 base numbers: Birthday Present A and B, #SFN/S108-E065a U and #SFN/S108-E065b U, divide one base-number weight equally. Each variant contributes 16/37 expected copies per display and 4/111 per pack; every other base number contributes 32/37 and 8/111 respectively. These uniform number weights and the equal variant split are modeling assumptions, not factory rarity rates, replacement rules, display guarantees, or pack correlations.
- The reviewed publisher territory includes the United States and Canada. This record does not generalize rates to other English territories.
- This calculator uses the one generated English North America display identity, TCGplayer product 578942, with the November 22, 2024 release record. It does not assign an unqualified loose pack to a printing or value a separately identified later edition. The exact factory wave of that unqualified display identity is not reported by this evidence; accessory availability and excluded signed-card treatments must not be inferred for later reprints.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-07-24: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- No-chase policy approved 2026-07-24: signed, serialized, hot-stamped, premium, special, secret-plus, parallel, promotional, and equivalent chase cards and branches do not exist in this model. The exact physical card count is drawn only from the supported ordinary pool; there is no simulated chase hit, zero-EV occupied outcome, redraw, backfill, or renormalization.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
- Best-evidence Weiss Schwarz baseline approved 2026-07-24: the publisher's exact cards-per-pack and packs-per-display are modeled as ordinary draws from the exact English TCGCSV normal-card pool. This is a transparent assumption-based estimate, not a claim about factory rarity collation, replacement rules, display guarantees, or pack correlation.
- When multiple ordinary physical variants share one published card number, their positive weights divide one card-number weight equally so variants do not inflate the publisher's normal-card type count.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
Historical Low-price review: these figures describe the printing pool and observation date used for the original review. They do not establish current price availability or completeness of a later corrected model. Current selected-source coverage is shown separately after loading.
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (historical review)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (historical review)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- July 24, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Cards outside the supported ordinary recipe
- Special printings outside the supported ordinary recipe, regardless of price availability
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 8
- Packs per booster display
- 12
- Booster Displays per case
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Frieren: Beyond Journey's End Booster Display
Product profile. This booster display resolves 96 card positions across 112 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 24, 2026 contains 32 Common, 31 Uncommon, 25 Rare, 13 Climax Rare, 11 Double Rare. Its largest slot groups are 32 common, 31 uncommon, 25 rare, 13 climax rare, 11 double rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. A Mere Ten Year Adventure #SFN/S108-E023 CR (0.865 expected per booster display), A Priests Job Sein #SFN/S108-E062 C (0.865 expected per booster display), An Older Woman Frieren #SFN/S108-E078 R (0.865 expected per booster display), Aura the Guillotine #SFN/S108-E026 RR (0.865 expected per booster display), Awkward Distance Fern #SFN/S108-E103 C (0.865 expected per booster display). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Believing in Her Words #SFN/S108-E068 CR, Birthday Celebration Fern #SFN/S108-E102 C, Birthday Present A #SFN/S108-E065a U, Blowing a Kiss Frieren #SFN/S108-E005 R, Clumsy Birthday Stark #SFN/S108-E047 RR, Precious Memory Himmel #SFN/S108-E001 RR, Homeland Flower Frieren and Himmel #SFN/S108-E002 RR, Reason to Go on a Journey Himmel #SFN/S108-E003 RR. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
How to read the pool. The named examples above distinguish this release from neighboring calculators. Live marketplace values still load in the calculator, while this editorial snapshot stays focused on the reviewed product structure and does not turn a temporary price into a permanent claim.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 12 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.