Best evidence · No-chase model
Animation Sword Art Online 10th Anniversary Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this sealed product with an evidence-backed, no-chase model and compare its recalculated Low, Mid, and High range with your entered cost.
Best evidence / no chase
- Release
- April 21, 2023
- Product
- Booster Display
- Singles pricing
- TCGplayer Low
- Model
- Best evidence / no chase
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidencePublisher recipe + model assumptionReviewed July 24, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/weiss-schwarz/bp-sao/models/booster-display-empirical-no-chase.json
Publisher recipe + model assumption
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher recipe + model assumption reviewed July 24, 2026.
Sources
- Animation Sword Art Online 10th Anniversary - English product page - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-07-22)
- TCGCSV Weiss Schwarz category groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Sword Art Online Animation 10th Anniversary products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Owner-directed Weiss Schwarz ordinary-pool best-evidence classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-24)
Limitations
- Bushiroad publishes the physical recipe: 9 cards per pack, 16 packs per display, and 18 displays per carton.
- Bushiroad lists 100 normal card types and 100 parallel card types. Type counts do not establish pull probabilities, replacement rules, per-display guarantees, or within-pool card weights.
- The reviewed publisher territory includes the United States and Canada. This record does not generalize rates to other English territories.
- The Bushiroad product page and reviewed TCGCSV pack/display product IDs establish the first-release English identities; this evidence does not identify later reprints or products for other territories.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-07-24: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- No-chase policy approved 2026-07-24: signed, serialized, hot-stamped, premium, special, secret-plus, parallel, promotional, and equivalent chase cards and branches do not exist in this model. The exact physical card count is drawn only from the supported ordinary pool; there is no simulated chase hit, zero-EV occupied outcome, redraw, backfill, or renormalization.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
- Best-evidence Weiss Schwarz baseline approved 2026-07-24: the publisher's exact cards-per-pack and packs-per-display are modeled as ordinary draws from the exact English TCGCSV normal-card pool. This is a transparent assumption-based estimate, not a claim about factory rarity collation, replacement rules, display guarantees, or pack correlation.
- When multiple ordinary physical variants share one published card number, their positive weights divide one card-number weight equally so variants do not inflate the publisher's normal-card type count.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- July 24, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Cards outside the supported ordinary recipe
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 9
- Packs per booster display
- 16
- Booster Displays per case
- 18
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Animation Sword Art Online 10th Anniversary Booster Display
Product profile. This booster display resolves 144 card positions across 100 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 24, 2026 contains 28 Common, 28 Uncommon, 22 Rare, 10 Double Rare, 8 Climax Common, 4 Climax Rare. Its largest slot groups are 28 common, 28 uncommon, 22 rare, 10 double rare, 8 climax common. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. 25 Years of Memories Eugeo #SAO/S100-E080 R (1.44 expected per booster display), A New Promise Asuna #SAO/S100-E017 C (1.44 expected per booster display), A Thousand Year Journey Asuna #SAO/S100-E003 RR (1.44 expected per booster display), After School Together Misumi and Asuna #SAO/S100-E034 U (1.44 expected per booster display), Alicization #SAO/S100-E097 R (1.44 expected per booster display). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Always Friendly Silica #SAO/S100-E059 RR, Aria of a Starless Night Asuna #SAO/S100-E016 C, Aria of a Starless Night Kazuto #SAO/S100-E087 U, Aria of a Starless Night Kirito #SAO/S100-E078 R, Awakened Feelings #SAO/S100-E074 CC, Final Push #SAO/S100-E055 CR, Informant Argo the Rat #SAO/S100-E001 RR, Longing Osmanthus Alice #SAO/S100-E002 RR. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
How to read the pool. The named examples above distinguish this release from neighboring calculators. Live marketplace values still load in the calculator, while this editorial snapshot stays focused on the reviewed product structure and does not turn a temporary price into a permanent claim.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 16 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.