Best evidence · No-chase model
BOCCHI THE ROCK! Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this sealed product with an evidence-backed, no-chase model and compare its recalculated Low, Mid, and High range with your entered cost.
Best evidence / no chase
- Release
- June 14, 2024
- Product
- Booster Display
- Singles pricing
- TCGplayer Low
- Model
- Best evidence / no chase
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — English pack structureReviewed October 6, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/weiss-schwarz/bp-btr/models/booster-display-empirical-no-chase.json
Best Evidence — English pack structure
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — English pack structure reviewed October 6, 2026.
Sources
- BOCCHI THE ROCK! - English product page - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
- TCGCSV Weiss Schwarz category groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV BOCCHI THE ROCK! products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-22) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — English pack structure and ordinary-pool classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Exact English TCGplayer Low supplement with active Near Mint listing - TCGTracking (accessed 2026-10-06)
- English nine-card booster specification - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English E031S card image identifies the SR parallel despite conflicting page metadata - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Japanese BOCCHI wrapper comparison; no selection rates adopted - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-04)
Limitations
- Best Evidence — English pack structure: the English publisher specifies 4 Common, 2 Uncommon, 1 Rare, 1 Climax, and 1 additional card of any rarity in each nine-card booster. The Japanese BOCCHI wrapper agrees at 9 cards and 16 packs, but supplies no adopted English selection probabilities.
- The additional-card rarity mix, Climax split, card-sheet weights, and box/case correlations are unpublished. Equal card-number weights within each retained pool, including all 100 ordinary numbers in the additional-card pool, are explicit assumptions. No RR-per-box guarantee or measured rarity rate is claimed.
- The ordinary English population has 103 physical SKUs across numbers E001-E100. E031a/E031b, E095a/E095b, and E096a/E096b each split one number's weight equally. Checklist type counts are identity evidence, not pull rates.
- Exact product 553974, I Am An Extrovert!, is excluded: catalog metadata and the publisher card-page text incorrectly label E031S Common, while the publisher's English card image prints E031S SR. The English image resolves this as a parallel, not a 101st ordinary number.
- The 16-pack display contains 144 booster cards plus one of four nonfoil E101-E104 PR toppers, totaling 145 cards. Equal 1/4 topper weights are an assumption; the bonus contributes only to display EV. The nine-card embedded pack EV excludes the topper. Foil store-assist PR cards, PE promos, and trial-deck cards are separate products.
- SSP, SP, KBR, OFR, RRR, SR and other unsupported parallel/chase outcomes are removed before drawing, including mislabeled E031S and E032OFR. Retained same-slot weights normalize before the complete product is drawn. Sift and user filters apply only after all 9 pack cards or 145 display cards are drawn, without rerolling or backfilling filtered cards.
- Prices use exact TCGplayer Low from TCGCSV, supplemented only for missing 554047 (BTR/W107-E068 RR) by TCGTracking OpenAPI. The supplement requires a matching active English Near Mint Normal listing and fresh source timestamps; Mid, High, foreign printings and historical quotes never substitute for Low. Market remains its independently reported quote. Daily sync fails closed if the required current quote disappears.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- October 6, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Supported Import
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Cards outside the supported ordinary recipe
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 9
- Packs per booster display
- 16
- Booster Displays per case
- 18
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives BOCCHI THE ROCK! Booster Display
Product profile. This booster display resolves 145 card positions across 107 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 6, 2026 contains 29 Common, 28 Uncommon, 24 Rare, 10 Double Rare, 8 Climax Common, 4 Climax Rare. Its largest slot groups are 29 common, 28 uncommon, 24 rare, 10 double rare, 8 climax common. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Abstract Aim Nijika Ijichi #BTR/W107-E027 C (2.45 expected per booster display), Astonished Ryo Yamada #BTR/W107-E025 C (2.45 expected per booster display), Avoiding a Development Hitori Gotoh #BTR/W107-E090 C (2.45 expected per booster display), Candid and Likeable Nijika Ijichi #BTR/W107-E054 C (2.45 expected per booster display), Crazy About You Ikuyo Kita #BTR/W107-E055 C (2.45 expected per booster display). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. 8 Tremolos of Growth and Trust #BTR/W107-E098 CR, Adding On Memories #BTR/W107-E100 CC, Admiration for the Extraordinary Ikuyo Kita #BTR/W107-E069 RR, Attention Seeking Monster Hitori Gotoh #BTR/W107-E086 U, Cant Tell You Nijika Ijichi #BTR/W107-E011 R, Debt to a Junior Ryo Yamada #BTR/W107-E059 C, Energetic Nijika Ijichi #BTR/W107-E101 PR, Lets Become Rock Stars Nijika Ijichi #BTR/W107-E001 RR. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Low snapshot dated October 6, 2026, 107 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Bocchi chan Hitori Gotoh #BTR/W107-E002 RR ($2.40), True Face of Guitarhero Hitori Gotoh #BTR/W107-E068 RR ($2.32), Lets Become Rock Stars Nijika Ijichi #BTR/W107-E001 RR ($2.32), Sticking By Her Music Ryo Yamada #BTR/W107-E038 RR ($2.08), Admiration for the Extraordinary Ikuyo Kita #BTR/W107-E069 RR ($0.72). Together those five rows account for 47.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Display EV (16 packs + 1 nonfoil PR, gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.