Sorcery: Contested Realm / Special Edition Box
Dragonlord Box (English, North America) EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model.
Compare the modeled EV range with your entered product cost to review estimated ROI. This planning metric is not a guaranteed return.
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
- Release
- August 2, 2025
- Market scope
- English / North America / Dragonlord English retail box; printing wave unspecified
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model file
/data-static/sorcery-contested-realm/dragonlord/models/dragonlord-fixed-box.json
Publisher collation
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher collation reviewed July 26, 2026.
Sources
- Sorcery: Contested Realm - Dragonlord - Erik's Curiosa (accessed 2026-07-26)
- Reviewed Dragonlord fixed/random publisher-feed and TCGCSV join - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-26)
Limitations
- The box contains all 13 fixed Standard cards plus one random Premium Holographic Foil drawn from 13 exact candidates.
- Each premium foil candidate receives equal positive 1/13 probability because the publisher identifies one random foil and no unequal weights; this is a prominent assumption, not a published sheet map.
- Draw the complete 14-card box first, then apply Sift or any user pool/value filter without rerolling or backfilling.
- Pricing is exact TCGCSV/TCGplayer Low only; no runtime raw-data or alternate-source fallback is allowed.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Measured row coverage
- 100.0%
- Measured modeled mass
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- July 26, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Unlisted chase families are absent from the reviewed product universe and removed from the model entirely. No chase branch or probability is invented, and no zero-EV occupied outcome, replacement draw, or renormalization is introduced.
- Curio
Basis: Dragonlord has no Curio branch in the reviewed fixed/random product recipe.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Special Edition Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
Dragonlord boxes: 0 · Price/Dragonlord box: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/Dragonlord box after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.