Sorcery: Contested Realm / Booster Pack
Alpha Booster Pack (English, North America, Curio Excluded) EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model.
Compare the modeled EV range with your entered product cost to review estimated ROI. This planning metric is not a guaranteed return.
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
- Release
- October 26, 2023
- Market scope
- English / North America / Alpha English retail Booster; printing wave unspecified
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model file
/data-static/sorcery-contested-realm/alpha/models/alpha-booster-pack-curio-excluded.json
Direct Alpha rate derivation
Evidence
This calculator is based on Direct Alpha rate derivation reviewed July 26, 2026.
Sources
- Sorcery: Contested Realm - Alpha - Erik's Curiosa (accessed 2026-07-26)
- Reviewed Alpha Booster publisher-feed and TCGCSV join - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-26)
- Original Sorcery: Contested Realm publisher FAQ - Erik's Curiosa (accessed 2026-07-26)
- Alpha print-run numbers and pull-rate derivation - The Realistic Collector (accessed 2026-07-26)
Limitations
- Direct Alpha rate derivation: campaign-era publisher targets support the E/U split and foil occurrence; the 10-plus-1 Ordinary structure and 7:6:3:1 foil-rarity mix remain disclosed third-party estimates, not a postproduction factory audit.
- Curios, Curio identities, and Curio replacement events are absent entirely from the locked publisher/marketplace Booster universe. No Curio probability is guessed, copied, normalized, or retained as a zero-EV occupied outcome.
- Each exact card receives one equal positive weight within its recipient-specific slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool; no short print or unequal card sheet is claimed.
- The foil-rarity branch and nonfoil Elite/Unique position are modeled independently because no supported correlation is available.
- Pack outputs are marginal expectations; no display, box, case, printing-wave, or card-level correlation is claimed.
- Draw all 15 modeled card positions first, then apply Sift or any user pool/value filter. Filtering never rerolls, replaces, or backfills a completed draw.
- Pricing is exact TCGCSV/TCGplayer Low only. Missing rows remain null and have no name, set-number, or alternate-source price fallback.
- Four publisher-confirmed Booster variants (Crusade and Jihad in Standard and Foil) have no current TCGCSV product row. They remain modeled with null prices and no fabricated TCGplayer identity or fallback.
- The campaign-era FAQ supplies target E/U and foil rates; the 10-plus-1 Ordinary structure and foil-rarity mix are disclosed third-party Alpha print-run estimates.
Direct Alpha rate derivation
Rate provenance
Direct Alpha rate derivation. Donor product: Alpha 15-card English Booster; variant: Curio-excluded conditional model; version: 2026-07-26; reviewed July 26, 2026.
This Alpha declaration binds the listed directly reviewed rate derivations; it is not a postproduction publisher collation audit.
Derived or copied fields
collation.slots.elite-or-unique.outcomes.elite.probability: 4/5 (0.8) - Campaign-era Alpha publisher FAQ target: the high-rarity slot is Elite four times in five.collation.slots.elite-or-unique.outcomes.unique.probability: 1/5 (0.2) - Campaign-era Alpha publisher FAQ target: Unique replaces Elite one time in five.collation.slots.foil-replacement.outcomes.foil-elite.probability: 3/68 (0.04411764705882353) - Alpha print-run proxy combines a one-in-four foil event with a 3/17 conditional Elite foil share.collation.slots.foil-replacement.outcomes.foil-exceptional.probability: 6/68 (0.08823529411764706) - Alpha print-run proxy combines a one-in-four foil event with a 6/17 conditional Exceptional foil share.collation.slots.foil-replacement.outcomes.foil-ordinary.probability: 7/68 (0.10294117647058823) - Alpha print-run proxy combines a one-in-four foil event with a 7/17 conditional Ordinary foil share.collation.slots.foil-replacement.outcomes.foil-unique.probability: 1/68 (0.014705882352941176) - Alpha print-run proxy combines a one-in-four foil event with a 1/17 conditional Unique foil share.collation.slots.foil-replacement.outcomes.standard-ordinary.probability: 51/68 (0.75) - The retained nonfoil Ordinary outcome is the complement of the four Alpha proxy foil branches.
- Similarities
- The current Alpha product keeps the documented 15-card 11/3/1 rarity backbone.
- Known differences
- The current Alpha page does not restate the campaign-era one-in-five Unique and one-in-four foil targets.
- Unsupported correlations
- No pack, display, box, or case correlation or guarantee is supported. Foil rarity and the nonfoil Elite/Unique slot are modeled independently.
- Model assumptions
- Cards have one equal positive weight within each exact recipient slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool. Curios and Curio replacement events are absent entirely; no zero-EV occupied outcome is retained.
- Review triggers
- Durable recipient-specific Unique, foil, sheet-weight, or correlation evidence replaces or withdraws these values. A changed product recipe, market printing, or material price-coverage failure requires re-review.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Measured row coverage
- 96.1%
- Measured modeled mass
- 99.9%
- Coverage observed
- July 26, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Unlisted chase families are absent from the reviewed product universe and removed from the model entirely. No chase branch or probability is invented, and no zero-EV occupied outcome, replacement draw, or renormalization is introduced.
- Curio
Basis: Curios are absent/unlisted in the exact publisher Booster identity universe; no Curio card, branch, rate, or occupied outcome exists in this model.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 15
- Packs per booster pack
- 1
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Booster Pack EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster packs: 0 · Price/booster pack: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster pack after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.