Strixhaven: School of Mages Set Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Strixhaven: School of Mages Set Booster Display using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend set-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Complete display: 30 × 14 physical positions. Each pack has 12 game cards, one Art card and one List-or-insert position. Draw every position before Sift or pool filters score it. Art valuation defaults off. Unknown selected quotes leave full EV unavailable; a labeled priced subtotal covers only known observations.

30 packs / boxEnglish display12 game cards / pack420 physical positions / displaySource-constrained allocation scenario

Allocation assumptions

Published guarantees include the Archive, Lesson and foil slots, 25% List replacement, 5% stamped Art and one-in-three Borderless replacement for the nine eligible nonfoil identities. Other category rates use the documented STX Set community recipe, including a 15% foil-land scenario. Within-bucket identity weights, Lesson wildcard/foil allocation and independent connected-card selections are disclosed assumptions, not factory collation. The List uses assumed 8:4:2:1 per-card rarity weights. One List printing remains unresolved and unpriced.

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 30 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Strixhaven: School of Mages Set Booster Content Snapshot

The disclosed scenario draws every one of the 420 physical display positions before included-pool controls or Sift score it.

Packs: 30 packs / box
Cards: 12 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 420 physical positions / display
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Strixhaven: School of Mages Set Booster is modeled with 12 game-card slots.

Mystical Archive1 card / pack

63 global English identities; Set rarity allocation is a disclosed scenario.

Lesson1 card / pack

20 eligible Lesson identities; category allocation is a disclosed scenario.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Identity-first regular / eligible Borderless allocation.

Wildcard1 card / pack

Any-rarity eligible nonfoil identity pool; disclosed within-rarity allocation.

Traditional foil1 card / pack

Eligible traditional-foil identity pool; disclosed within-rarity allocation.

Connected commons / uncommons6 cards / pack

Category counts follow the disclosed Set recipe; independent within-sheet draws do not reproduce factory thematic correlation.

Basic land1 card / pack

10 illustrations; inherited 15% foil-land allocation is a scenario, not published factory odds.

Art card1 card / pack

81 illustrations; published 5% gold stamp. Physically drawn with Art scoring off by default.

The List / insert1 position / pack

Published 25% List / 75% non-game insert; List rarity weights are an explicit allocation assumption.

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Loading complete product

Loading exact original-cohort price observations.

Priced subtotal only: Low Unavailable · Mid Unavailable · High Unavailable

Top priced contributions

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 420 physical positions / display							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/stx/models/set-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.