Riftbound: Origins Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Riftbound: Origins booster boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models Origins slot composition, rarity weighting, and showcase treatment pools for realistic EV and variance projections.

Signature cards are not included in this calculation.

Each sealed box is simulated as 24 packs with the configured common/uncommon/rare, foil, and showcase slot behavior listed below. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Riftbound: Origins is themed around foundational faction identities and early-world conflicts, with a baseline card pool designed to establish core archetypes and chase treatments.

24 packs / box 13 EV‑modeled cards / pack (token/rune excluded) Base slots: 7C • 3U • 2 Rare‑or‑better (per‑slot Epic upgrade) Foil slot: configurable rarity mix Rare/Epic from Rare‑slots can use foil pricing Showcase slot: ≈1 in 72 packs (≈1 per 3 boxes)
Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.
Counts — Main (NF)
Counts — Rare slot
Counts — Foil slot
Counts — Showcase
Sanity

Selling Fees

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially lower EV if Market/Mid are stale. “Min” is most conservative.
Example: 0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV × 24 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost———
Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Boxes / copy
Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift 0.00
Preparing…
Boxes / copy = 1 ÷ expected copies per box (24 × per‑pack probability). EV uses Sift only when Use Sift (≥) is checked; row tinting always uses the numeric Sift value.