XY Base Set
Booster Box no-chase EV calculator

Estimate the no-chase expected value of the English XY Booster Box (TCGplayer product 91601, group 1387): 36 boosters with 10 modeled game-card positions each. The official English XY1 checklist establishes exact numbered printing and finish membership. A bounded firsthand box opening and an exact retailer display listing support the full-product count; they do not establish factory per-card odds. Singles values use generated same-origin snapshot channels. Original dated reference inputs below remain historical.

Chase branches are excluded: holo rares, EX/GX/V/VMAX/VSTAR, secret rares, Shiny/Radiant/Trainer Gallery, illustration, hyper, ACE SPEC, and other premium rows do not contribute to this baseline.

Calculation order: ordinary pack contents are assigned to card rows first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied afterward. Disabled rows do not backfill into other cards.

36 packs / booster box XY · group 1387 5 Common / 3 Uncommon / 1 Rare / 1 Reverse Independent browser simulation

No-chase baseline

The official English XY1 checklist verifies 48 Common, 42 Uncommon and 26 ordinary Rare Normal identities. Nine numbered Basic Energy cards 132–140 are standard-only and stay eligible within the Common Normal pool; they are excluded from Reverse before the remaining 107 eligible Common/Uncommon/Rare Reverse identities are normalized. Double Colorless Energy 130/146 and Rainbow Energy 131/146 remain Uncommon in both finishes. The active scenario therefore has 116 Normal plus 107 Reverse outcomes, not the original 232 outcomes. Five Common, three Uncommon, one ordinary Rare and one Reverse per pack, independent draws and uniform within-pool allocations are retained uncalibrated assumptions, not factory guarantees. A bounded English pack shows numbered Grass Energy 132 within five Common, three Uncommon, one Reverse and one ordinary Rare. Premium/Holo Rare/EX exclusions are unchanged. Complete all 360 modeled draws before Sift and user pool filters without reroll or backfill.

The original standalone inserts, code cards, non-game inserts and standalone basic Energy insert slots stay outside this ten-game-card no-chase valuation. Numbered Common Basic Energy 132–140 remain included as Normal, with uniform Common allocation an assumption; the official checklist has no parallel checkbox for those nine exact printings. Their former Reverse channels were populated through Normal fallback and are not independently observed Reverse Market quotes. The original excluded-Basic-Energy counter remains zero as descriptive metadata, not proof of universal collation. No additional Energy position, product variant or public loose-pack calculator is invented.

Loaded pools: waiting for card data.

Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor. Row tinting always uses the Sift value; EV only uses it when Use Sift in EV is checked.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives XY Base Set Booster Box

Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 223 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 87 Common, 84 Uncommon, 52 Rare. Its largest slot groups are 107 reverse standard, 48 nf common, 42 nf uncommon, 26 rare slot rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Bidoof #106/146 (3.75 expected per booster box), Bunnelby #111/146 (3.75 expected per booster box), Chespin #12/146 (3.75 expected per booster box), Darkness Energy (Basic) #138/146 (3.75 expected per booster box), Diglett #58/146 (3.75 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aegislash (85), Aegislash (85) (Reverse Holofoil), Braixen #25/146, Doduo #98/146, Weedle (Reverse Holofoil) #3/146, Weedle #3/146, Kakuna (Reverse Holofoil) #4/146, Kakuna #4/146. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 223 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Muscle Band #121/146 ($14.50), Water Energy #134/146 ($13.50), Pikachu #42/146 ($11.74), Jigglypuff (87) ($8.92), Psychic Energy #136/146 ($6.30). Together those five rows account for 24.5% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Selling Fees

Per-row net EV uses the selected seller and payment deductions. Shipping and order estimates are disabled.

Value Threshold

Generated Pokemon price snapshots support Market, Low, and Direct Low pricing for EV.
Rows below Sift are removed from EV only if the toggle below is on.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; low and high are central quantiles from product openings.

Purchase EV

Whole boxes only (0–1,000); fractional and out-of-range input is normalized before calculating.

Waiting for card data...

Pack & Product EV

Pack and product no-chase expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Product EV x 36 packs (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/product (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level no-chase expected value using the active whole-product count and entered product cost.
All productsLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Products: 0 - Price/product: $0.00 - Total cost: $0.00 - Rows priced: 0 / 0 missing

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed booster box low prices compared to the current no-chase break-even price/product (mid).
Source Product price Break-even price/product (mid) P/E Basis
TCGplayer - - - Loading...
Loading sealed marketplace low prices...

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated product totals after cards are drawn, then Sift and pool toggles are applied to those pulls.
Per-card no-chase expected value rows for the current filters and price source.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Expected / product Gross EV Net EV Products / copy
Loading generated card data...
Deterministic total - active pools & Sift 0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -
Sanity total - all modeled ordinary rows 0.00 - - -
Expected copies are modeled from ordinary pack slots first. Gross and net EV apply disabled pool filters and optional Sift afterward, so filtered rows do not rebalance into other slots.