XY - Fates Collide
Booster Box no-chase EV calculator
Estimate the English Fates Collide Booster Box (TCGplayer product 117478): 36 packs and 360 modeled game-card positions. This independent browser sampler consumes generated local cards and exact Normal/Reverse Holofoil quotes. Market never substitutes Low or another finish. Code inserts remain outside the game-card valuation.
Chase branches are excluded: holo rares, EX/GX/V/VMAX/VSTAR, secret rares, Shiny/Radiant/Trainer Gallery, illustration, hyper, ACE SPEC, and other premium rows do not contribute to this baseline.
Calculation order: ordinary pack contents are assigned to card rows first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied afterward. Disabled rows do not backfill into other cards.
No-chase baseline
The official Fates Collide checklist verifies 26 Common, 46 Uncommon and 20 ordinary Rare identities with standard and parallel printings: 92 eligible identities and 184 Normal/Reverse outcomes. Double Colorless Energy 114/124 and Strong Energy 115/124 remain Uncommon Special Energy in both pools; Energy Pouch 97 and Energy Reset 98 are distinct Trainers. The publisher checklist covers 1–124; generated Secret 125 is excluded and is not independently certified by that checklist. This documented no-chase scenario excludes 5 Holo Rare, 22 Ultra Rare, 5 BREAK and 1 generated Secret Rare identities before drawing, normalizing the retained 5 Common / 3 Uncommon / 1 ordinary Rare / 1 Reverse recipe. Uniform eligible identity allocations are assumptions, not factory odds. All 360 modeled game-card positions are drawn before Sift/pool filtering, without reroll or backfill.
Fates Collide online code inserts remain outside the original ten-game-card model. The own observed complete pack has no additional unnumbered Basic Energy; the excluded-Energy counter remains 0. Numbered Double Colorless Energy 114/124 and Strong Energy 115/124 remain in Uncommon and ordinary Reverse pools. No ETB, topper, promo or loose-pack public product is added.
Loaded pools: waiting for card data.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives XY - Fates Collide Booster Box
Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 184 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 92 Uncommon, 52 Common, 40 Rare. Its largest slot groups are 92 reverse standard, 46 nf uncommon, 26 nf common, 20 rare slot rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Binacle #22/124 (6.92 expected per booster box), Bronzor #60/124 (6.92 expected per booster box), Burmy #2/124 (6.92 expected per booster box), Carbink (50) (6.92 expected per booster box), Cottonee #70/124 (6.92 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Aerodactyl (Reverse Holofoil) #76/124, Aerodactyl #76/124, Alakazam Spirit Link #90/124, Deerling #8/124, Shuckle (Reverse Holofoil) #1/124, Shuckle #1/124, Burmy (Reverse Holofoil) #2/124, Wormadam (3) (Reverse Holofoil). Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 184 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Snorlax #77/124 ($18.31), Snorlax (Reverse Holofoil) #77/124 ($11.90), Lugia #78/124 ($4.66), N (Supporter) #105/124 ($4.30), Moltres (Reverse Holofoil) #9/124 ($3.88). Together those five rows account for 26.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Whole boxes only (0–1,000); fractional and out-of-range input is normalized before calculating.
Pack & Product EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Product EV x 36 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price/product (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All products | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | - | - | - |
Sealed Price / EV
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| Source | Product price | Break-even price/product (mid) | P/E | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCGplayer | - | - | - | Loading... |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Expected / product | Gross EV | Net EV | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading generated card data... | |||||||||
| Deterministic total - active pools & Sift | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | - | |||||
| Sanity total - all modeled ordinary rows | 0.00 | - | - | - | |||||