SWSH03: Darkness Ablaze
Booster Box no-chase EV calculator
Estimate the English Darkness Ablaze Booster Box (TCGplayer product 216853): 36 packs and 360 modeled game-card positions. This independent browser sampler consumes generated local cards and exact Normal/Reverse Holofoil quotes. Market never substitutes Low or another finish. The additional Basic Energy and code insert remain outside the original game-card valuation.
Chase branches are excluded: holo rares, EX/GX/V/VMAX/VSTAR, secret rares, Shiny/Radiant/Trainer Gallery, illustration, hyper, ACE SPEC, and other premium rows do not contribute to this baseline.
Calculation order: ordinary pack contents are assigned to card rows first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied afterward. Disabled rows do not backfill into other cards.
No-chase baseline
The official Darkness Ablaze checklist verifies 53 Common, 50 Uncommon and 34 ordinary Rare identities with standard and parallel printings: 137 eligible identities and 274 Normal/Reverse outcomes. Heat Energy 174/189, Hiding Energy 175/189 and Powerful Energy 176/189 remain Uncommon Special Energy in both pools. The publisher checklist covers numbers 001–189; excluded generated Secret cards 190–201 are not independently certified by that checklist. This documented no-chase scenario excludes Holo Rare, V/VMAX, Ultra/Secret and premium outcomes before drawing, normalizing the retained 5 Common / 3 Uncommon / 1 ordinary Rare / 1 Reverse recipe. Uniform identity allocations remain qualified assumptions, not factory odds. All 360 modeled game-card positions are drawn before Sift/pool filtering, without reroll or backfill.
The additional unnumbered Basic Energy and code insert in Darkness Ablaze packs remain outside this original ten-game-card model. Numbered Heat Energy 174/189, Hiding Energy 175/189 and Powerful Energy 176/189 remain in the Uncommon and ordinary Reverse pools; generated Secret Rare Capture Energy 201/189 remains excluded by the documented no-chase basis. No ETB, topper, promo or loose-pack public product is added.
Loaded pools: waiting for card data.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives SWSH03: Darkness Ablaze Booster Box
Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 274 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 106 Common, 100 Uncommon, 68 Rare. Its largest slot groups are 137 reverse standard, 53 nf common, 50 nf uncommon, 34 rare slot rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Aron #121/189 (3.40 expected per booster box), Bounsweet #014/189 (3.40 expected per booster box), Bunnelby #150/189 (3.40 expected per booster box), Cubchoo #048/189 (3.40 expected per booster box), Cufant #131/189 (3.40 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Accelgor (Reverse Holofoil) #010/189, Accelgor #010/189, Ariados #103/189, Deino #108/189, Paras (Reverse Holofoil) #003/189, Paras #003/189, Parasect (Reverse Holofoil) #004/189, Parasect #004/189. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 274 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Trapinch #089/189 ($1.19), Bounsweet #014/189 ($1.15), Torchic #022/189 ($0.95), Jigglypuff #067/189 ($0.95), Skitty #141/189 ($0.85). Together those five rows account for 10.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Whole boxes only (0–1,000); fractional and out-of-range input is normalized before calculating.
Pack & Product EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Product EV x 36 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per product | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price/product (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All products | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | - | - | - |
Sealed Price / EV
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| Source | Product price | Break-even price/product (mid) | P/E | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCGplayer | - | - | - | Loading... |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Expected / product | Gross EV | Net EV | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading generated card data... | |||||||||
| Deterministic total - active pools & Sift | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | - | |||||
| Sanity total - all modeled ordinary rows | 0.00 | - | - | - | |||||