SM - Crimson Invasion
Booster Box no-chase EV calculator

Estimate the English Crimson Invasion Booster Box (TCGplayer 146995): 36 complete ten-game-card boosters. This independent browser sampler reads generated local card and exact printing-price snapshots. Extra Basic Energy and code cards remain outside the retained game-card valuation. Snapshot dates are source observations, not a live refresh.

Chase branches are excluded: holo rares, EX/GX/V/VMAX/VSTAR, secret rares, Shiny/Radiant/Trainer Gallery, illustration, hyper, ACE SPEC, and other premium rows do not contribute to this baseline.

Calculation order: ordinary pack contents are assigned to card rows first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied afterward. Disabled rows do not backfill into other cards.

36 packs / booster box SM04 · group 2071 5 Common / 3 Uncommon / 1 Rare / 1 Reverse Frontend-only model

No-chase baseline

The original documented no-chase counterfactual retains 34 Common, 26 Uncommon and 20 ordinary non-holo Rare identities, each in Normal and Reverse Holofoil. The official main 111-card checklist confirms all 80 ordinary identities and both printing marks, alongside 12 Holo Rare, 8 GX and 11 Ultra Rare identities. These premium categories and the generated catalog's additional 12 above-checklist identities remain excluded before normalization. The main checklist contains no numbered Basic Energy; Uncommon Special Counter Energy #100/111 remains eligible in both finishes. This reconciliation establishes the complete modeled ordinary roster, not completeness of the catalog's excluded secret-card inventory. Five Common, three Uncommon, one ordinary Rare and one ordinary Reverse per pack, with uniform individual weights, remain explicit scenario assumptions rather than factory probabilities. Draw all 360 modeled positions before Sift or pool filters, without reroll or backfill.

Official English checklist · English full-box specification. Other provider-listed offers and archival finishes are retained separately from modeled booster eligibility.

Guaranteed box toppers, standalone sealed-product inserts, non-game inserts, code cards, and standalone basic Energy insert slots are outside this no-chase model. Numbered Common/Uncommon Basic Energy rows remain modelable; Rare Basic Energy rows stay out of ordinary no-chase slots.

Loaded pools: waiting for card data.

Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor. Row tinting always uses the Sift value; EV only uses it when Use Sift in EV is checked.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives SM - Crimson Invasion Booster Box

Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 160 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 68 Common, 52 Uncommon, 40 Rare. Its largest slot groups are 80 reverse standard, 34 nf common, 26 nf uncommon, 20 rare slot rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Alolan Geodude #32/111 (5.29 expected per booster box), Aron #65/111 (5.29 expected per booster box), Bunnelby #87/111 (5.29 expected per booster box), Cacnea #5/111 (5.29 expected per booster box), Chimecho #43/111 (5.29 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Accelgor (Reverse Holofoil) #9/111, Accelgor #9/111, Altaria #80/111, Corphish #24/111, Weedle (Reverse Holofoil) #1/111, Weedle #1/111, Kakuna (Reverse Holofoil) #2/111, Kakuna #2/111. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 160 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Pikachu #30/111 ($12.18), Pikachu (Reverse Holofoil) #30/111 ($6.48), Wigglytuff #72/111 ($3.85), Jigglypuff #71/111 ($3.23), Counter Catcher #91/111 ($2.99). Together those five rows account for 21.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Selling Fees

Per-row net EV uses percentage and transaction fees. Per-order processing is controlled in purchase settings.

Value Threshold

Generated Pokemon price snapshots support Market, Low, and Direct Low pricing for EV.
Rows below Sift are removed from EV only if the toggle below is on.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; low and high are central quantiles from product openings.

Purchase EV

Adds the marketplace per-order processing fee in the purchase summary.
Waiting for card data...

Pack & Product EV

Pack and product no-chase expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Product EV x 36 packs (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/product (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level no-chase expected value using the active product count and order-fee settings.
All productsLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Products: 0 - Price/product: $0.00 - Total cost: $0.00 - Rows priced: 0 / 0 missing

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed booster box low prices compared to the current no-chase break-even price/product (mid).
Source Product price Break-even price/product (mid) P/E Basis
TCGplayer - - - Loading...
Loading sealed marketplace low prices...

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated product totals after cards are drawn, then Sift and pool toggles are applied to those pulls.
Per-card no-chase expected value rows for the current filters and price source.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Expected / product Gross EV Net EV Products / copy
Loading generated card data...
Deterministic total - active pools & Sift 0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -
Sanity total - all modeled ordinary rows 0.00 - - -
Expected copies are modeled from ordinary pack slots first. Gross and net EV apply disabled pool filters and optional Sift afterward, so filtered rows do not rebalance into other slots.