SM Base Set
Booster Box no-chase EV calculator

Estimate the English Sun & Moon Booster Box (TCGplayer product 126048): 36 packs and 360 modeled game-card positions. This independent browser sampler consumes generated local cards and exact Normal/Reverse Holofoil quotes. Market never substitutes Low or another finish. The additional Basic Energy and code insert remain outside the original game-card valuation.

Chase branches are excluded: holo rares, EX/GX/V/VMAX/VSTAR, secret rares, Shiny/Radiant/Trainer Gallery, illustration, hyper, ACE SPEC, and other premium rows do not contribute to this baseline.

Calculation order: ordinary pack contents are assigned to card rows first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied afterward. Disabled rows do not backfill into other cards.

36 packs / booster box SM01 · group 1863 5 Common / 3 Uncommon / 1 Rare / 1 Reverse Independent browser simulation

No-chase baseline

The official Sun & Moon checklist verifies 44 Common, 49 Uncommon and 17 ordinary Rare identities with standard and parallel printings: 110 eligible identities and 220 Normal/Reverse outcomes. Double Colorless Energy 136/149 and Rainbow Energy 137/149 remain Uncommon Special Energy in both pools. This documented no-chase scenario excludes Holo Rare/GX/Ultra/Secret and premium outcomes before drawing, normalizing the retained 5 Common / 3 Uncommon / 1 ordinary Rare / 1 Reverse recipe. Uniform identity allocations are existing assumptions, not factory odds. All 360 modeled game-card positions are drawn before Sift/pool filtering, without reroll or backfill.

The additional unnumbered Basic Energy and code insert in Sun & Moon packs remain outside this original ten-game-card model. Numbered Double Colorless Energy 136/149 and Rainbow Energy 137/149 remain in the Uncommon and ordinary Reverse pools. No ETB, topper, promo or loose-pack public product is added.

Loaded pools: waiting for card data.

Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor. Row tinting always uses the Sift value; EV only uses it when Use Sift in EV is checked.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives SM Base Set Booster Box

Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 220 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 98 Uncommon, 88 Common, 34 Rare. Its largest slot groups are 110 reverse standard, 49 nf uncommon, 44 nf common, 17 rare slot rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Alolan Diglett #86/149 (4.09 expected per booster box), Alolan Grimer #57/149 (4.09 expected per booster box), Alolan Meowth #78/149 (4.09 expected per booster box), Alolan Rattata #76/149 (4.09 expected per booster box), Bounsweet #18/149 (4.09 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Alolan Diglett (Reverse Holofoil) #86/149, Alolan Persian #79/149, Bewear #112/149, Carvanha #81/149, Caterpie (Reverse Holofoil) #1/149, Caterpie #1/149, Metapod (Reverse Holofoil) #2/149, Metapod #2/149. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 220 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Psyduck #28/149 ($3.76), Poliwag #30/149 ($3.31), Eevee #101/149 ($2.29), Psyduck (Reverse Holofoil) #28/149 ($2.17), Poliwag (Reverse Holofoil) #30/149 ($1.83). Together those five rows account for 16.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Selling Fees

Per-row net EV uses the selected seller and payment deductions. Shipping and order estimates are disabled.

Value Threshold

Generated Pokemon price snapshots support Market, Low, and Direct Low pricing for EV.
Rows below Sift are removed from EV only if the toggle below is on.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; low and high are central quantiles from product openings.

Purchase EV

Whole boxes only (0–1,000); fractional and out-of-range input is normalized before calculating.

Waiting for card data...

Pack & Product EV

Pack and product no-chase expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Product EV x 36 packs (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/product (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level no-chase expected value using the active whole-product count and entered product cost.
All productsLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Products: 0 - Price/product: $0.00 - Total cost: $0.00 - Rows priced: 0 / 0 missing

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed booster box low prices compared to the current no-chase break-even price/product (mid).
Source Product price Break-even price/product (mid) P/E Basis
TCGplayer - - - Loading...
Loading sealed marketplace low prices...

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated product totals after cards are drawn, then Sift and pool toggles are applied to those pulls.
Per-card no-chase expected value rows for the current filters and price source.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Expected / product Gross EV Net EV Products / copy
Loading generated card data...
Deterministic total - active pools & Sift 0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -
Sanity total - all modeled ordinary rows 0.00 - - -
Expected copies are modeled from ordinary pack slots first. Gross and net EV apply disabled pool filters and optional Sift afterward, so filtered rows do not rebalance into other slots.