Scarlet & Violet—Twilight Masquerade
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator
Estimate the expected value (EV) of Twilight Masquerade elite trainer boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models the Twilight Masquerade English pull structure with standard slots, rare-slot upgrades, a first reverse slot that can upgrade into ACE SPEC, and premium bonus-slot upgrades to produce realistic EV and variance projections.
Basic Energy, code cards, the Teal Mask Ogerpon promo, and ETB accessories are not included in this calculation.
Each sealed product is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured Twilight Masquerade pull-rate assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.
Set theme: Twilight Masquerade spotlights the masked Legendary Pokémon Ogerpon across its masks, plus Greninja ex, Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex, Sinistcha ex, Dragapult ex, and a deep ACE SPEC lineup alongside Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare chase cards.
Twilight Masquerade pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable Twilight Masquerade pack model. The Pokemon Company has not published exact English Twilight Masquerade rarity upgrade rates, so the defaults below remain community and TCGplayer-observed assumptions tuned to the TCGplayer Twilight Masquerade pull-rate article. ACE SPEC hits are modeled as upgrades to the first reverse holo slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to the second reverse/premium slot.
| Rarity / slot | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 16.93% (~1 in 6 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 16.93% |
| Ultra Rare | 6.61% (~1 in 15 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.61% |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.06% (~1 in 20 packs) | First reverse-slot upgrade = 5.06% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.73% (~1 in 13 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 7.73% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.17% (~1 in 86 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.17% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 0.68% (~1 in 146 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 0.68% |
Validation targets: TCGplayer’s English Twilight Masquerade pull-rate data, plus the official Twilight Masquerade card list for premium numbering ranges, ACE SPEC cards, and card names.
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Box EV × 9 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Sealed Price / EV
| Source | Box price | Break-even price/box (mid) | P/E | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCGplayer | - | - | - | Loading... |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||