Scarlet & Violet—Twilight Masquerade
Sealed product EV calculator
Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Scarlet & Violet—Twilight Masquerade sealed products in one calculator. Choose Booster Box / Display, Elite Trainer Box, or Booster Bundle; the independent browser sampler uses the selected product's pack quantity, generated card roster and price snapshots while retaining the set's documented pull assumptions and generated singles-price snapshots.
Basic Energy, code cards, and sealed extras are not included in this calculation.
Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.
Unsupported product scope: The 11-pack Pokémon Center Exclusive Elite Trainer Box remains in generated sealed-product data for price visibility, but it is not selectable here because this calculator currently models the standard 9-pack Elite Trainer Box contents.
Set theme: Twilight Masquerade spotlights the masked Legendary Pokémon Ogerpon across its masks, plus Greninja ex, Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex, Sinistcha ex, Dragapult ex, and a deep ACE SPEC lineup alongside Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare chase cards.
Twilight Masquerade pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses generated price snapshots with a configurable Twilight Masquerade pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to the TCGplayer Twilight Masquerade pull-rate article. ACE SPEC hits are modeled as upgrades to the first reverse holo slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to the second reverse/premium slot.
| Rarity / slot | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 16.93% (~1 in 6 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 16.93% |
| Ultra Rare | 6.61% (~1 in 15 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.61% |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.06% (~1 in 20 packs) | First reverse-slot upgrade = 5.06% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.73% (~1 in 13 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 7.73% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.17% (~1 in 86 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.17% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 0.68% (~1 in 146 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 0.68% |
Validation targets: TCGplayer’s English Twilight Masquerade pull-rate data, plus the official Twilight Masquerade card list for premium numbering ranges, ACE SPEC cards, and card names.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Scarlet & Violet—Twilight Masquerade Sealed product
Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 373 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 152 Common, 110 Uncommon, 32 Rare, 21 Illustration Rare, 21 Ultra Rare, 14 Double Rare. Its largest slot groups are 147 foil common, 76 nf common, 55 nf uncommon, 21 illustration rare, 21 rare slot ultra rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Accompanying Flute #142/167 (1.96 expected per booster box), Aggron #122/167 (1.96 expected per booster box), Ambipom #138/167 (1.96 expected per booster box), Ariados #005/167 (1.96 expected per booster box), Bellibolt #074/167 (1.96 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Abra (Reverse Holofoil) #080/167, Abra #080/167, Alakazam (Holofoil) #082/167, Applin (Holofoil) #185/167, Blissey ex (Holofoil) #134/167, Blissey ex (Holofoil) #201/167, Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex (Holofoil) #216/167, Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex (Holofoil) #222/167, Tangela (Reverse Holofoil) #001/167. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 373 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Greninja ex (Holofoil) #214/167 ($14.38), Eevee (Holofoil) #188/167 ($13.02), Chansey (Holofoil) #187/167 ($7.36), Perrin (Holofoil) #220/167 ($6.57), Hisuian Growlithe (Holofoil) #181/167 ($4.05). Together those five rows account for 27.0% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Enter a whole nonnegative product quantity. Previous values remain displayed until a valid quantity is entered.
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Box / Display EV × 36 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||