Scarlet & Violet—Surging Sparks
Booster Bundle EV calculator
Estimate the expected value (EV) of Surging Sparks booster bundles using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models the Surging Sparks English pull structure with standard slots, rare-slot upgrades, a first reverse slot that can upgrade into ACE SPEC, and premium bonus-slot upgrades to produce realistic EV and variance projections.
Basic Energy, code cards, and sealed extras are not included in this calculation.
Each sealed product is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured Surging Sparks pull-rate assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.
Set theme: Surging Sparks highlights Pikachu ex, Latias ex, Hydreigon ex, and Alolan Exeggutor ex while mixing ACE SPEC cards, Illustration Rares, Special Illustration Rares, and Hyper Rare chase cards into the set.
Surging Sparks pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable Surging Sparks pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to the TCGplayer Surging Sparks pull-rate article. ACE SPEC hits are modeled as upgrades to the first reverse holo slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to the second reverse/premium slot.
| Rarity / slot | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 16.94% (~1 in 6 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 16.94% |
| Ultra Rare | 6.74% (~1 in 15 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.74% |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.03% (~1 in 20 packs) | First reverse-slot upgrade = 5.03% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.67% (~1 in 13 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 7.67% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.15% (~1 in 87 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.15% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 0.53% (~1 in 188 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 0.53% |
Validation targets: TCGplayer’s English Surging Sparks pull-rate data, plus the official Surging Sparks card list for premium numbering ranges, ACE SPEC cards, and card names.
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Box EV × 6 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||