Scarlet & Violet—Surging Sparks
Sealed product EV calculator
Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Scarlet & Violet—Surging Sparks sealed products in one calculator. Choose Booster Box / Display, Elite Trainer Box, Booster Bundle — LGS, or Booster Bundle — Retail; the browser applies the selected product's pack quantity to its independently implemented, documented pull model and the selected generated singles-price snapshot.
Basic Energy inserts, fixed promos, Energy bricks, code cards and accessories remain excluded from this booster-contents EV. This calculator models 36 packs per display, 9 per ETB and 6 per LGS or Retail bundle, with 10 game-card positions per pack. Those counts do not include every physical ETB card or accessory; its Magneton promo and 45-card Energy brick are excluded. TCGplayer's study of more than 8,000 packs supports the retained empirical rates. Uniform card allocation and independent slot sampling are modeling assumptions, not factory guarantees. Complete products are drawn before Sift and user filters, without rerolls or backfill.
Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.
Surging Sparks pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses generated pricing snapshots and the retained Surging Sparks pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to the TCGplayer Surging Sparks pull-rate article. ACE SPEC hits are modeled as upgrades to the first reverse holo slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to the second reverse/premium slot.
| Rarity / slot | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 16.94% (~1 in 6 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 16.94% |
| Ultra Rare | 6.74% (~1 in 15 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.74% |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.03% (~1 in 20 packs) | First reverse-slot upgrade = 5.03% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.67% (~1 in 13 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 7.67% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.15% (~1 in 87 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.15% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 0.53% (~1 in 188 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 0.53% |
Sources: the TCGplayer Authentication Center study of more than 8,000 packs and official Surging Sparks checklist. Reported rates are empirical estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Uniform identity allocation is supported by the study but remains an assumption; joint slot independence is not a measured factory distribution.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Scarlet & Violet—Surging Sparks Sealed product
Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 417 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 176 Common, 122 Uncommon, 32 Rare, 23 Illustration Rare, 21 Ultra Rare, 18 Double Rare. Its largest slot groups are 165 foil common, 88 nf common, 61 nf uncommon, 23 illustration rare, 21 rare slot ultra rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Alolan Dugtrio #123/191 (1.77 expected per booster box), Altaria #134/191 (1.77 expected per booster box), Annihilape #100/191 (1.77 expected per booster box), Appletun #140/191 (1.77 expected per booster box), Armarouge #034/191 (1.77 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Alolan Diglett (Reverse Holofoil) #122/191, Alolan Diglett #122/191, Alolan Dugtrio (Holofoil) #208/191, Alolan Exeggutor ex (Holofoil) #133/191, Alolan Exeggutor ex (Holofoil) #225/191, Alolan Exeggutor ex (Holofoil) #242/191, Alolan Exeggutor ex (Holofoil) #248/191, Amulet of Hope (Holofoil) #162/191, Exeggcute (Reverse Holofoil) #001/191. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 417 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Pikachu ex (Holofoil) #238/191 ($11.09), Latias ex (Holofoil) #239/191 ($6.60), Milotic ex (Holofoil) #237/191 ($4.89), Latios (Holofoil) #203/191 ($4.12), Pikachu ex (Holofoil) #219/191 ($3.19). Together those five rows account for 23.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Box / Display EV × 36 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||