Scarlet & Violet—Shrouded Fable
Sealed product EV calculator
Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Scarlet & Violet—Shrouded Fable sealed products in one calculator. Choose Elite Trainer Box or Booster Bundle; the calculator uses the selected product's pack quantity and generated model while retaining the set's documented pull assumptions and live singles pricing.
Basic Energy, code cards, and sealed extras are not included in this calculation.
Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.
Set theme: Shrouded Fable centers on Pecharunt ex and the Loyal Three—Okidogi ex, Munkidori ex, and Fezandipiti ex—while Kingdra ex, Revavroom ex, ACE SPEC cards, Illustration Rares, Special Illustration Rares, and Hyper Rare chase cards round out the set.
Shrouded Fable pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable Shrouded Fable pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to community Shrouded Fable pull-rate data. ACE SPEC hits are modeled as upgrades to the first reverse holo slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to the second reverse/premium slot.
| Rarity / slot | Existing community-model assumption | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 16.70% (~1 in 6 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 16.70% |
| Ultra Rare | 6.50% (~1 in 15 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.50% |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.00% (~1 in 20 packs) | First reverse-slot upgrade = 5.00% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 8.50% (~1 in 12 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 8.50% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.50% (~1 in 67 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.50% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 0.70% (~1 in 144 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 0.70% |
Booster contents basis: all10 modeled game-card positions in each of the selected9 or6 packs are drawn before Sift and pool filters. Each pack's additional Basic Energy and code card are excluded. The standard9-pack Elite Trainer Box also excludes its Pecharunt promo,45 Energy cards,65 sleeves and other accessories. The Pokémon Center11-pack ETB is a distinct product and is not selected here. Missing exact-finish quotes are unavailable; foil multipliers do not substitute for them.
Model basis: the original community point estimates and uniform within-pool allocations are retained as assumptions, not factory guarantees or a newly verified statistical study. The publisher checklist verifies numbered identities and rarities. Unnumbered Basic Energy printings, including reverse Basic Energy, are excluded before constructing the eligible reverse pools; numbered Hyper Rare Basic Darkness Energy #098 and Basic Metal Energy #099 remain included. All modeled positions are drawn before user filters.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Scarlet & Violet—Shrouded Fable Sealed product
Product profile. This Elite Trainer Box resolves 90 card positions across 154 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 21, 2026 contains 56 Common, 40 Uncommon, 15 Illustration Rare, 14 Rare, 10 Ultra Rare, 6 Double Rare. Its largest slot groups are 55 foil common, 28 nf common, 20 nf uncommon, 15 illustration rare, 10 rare slot ultra rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Academy at Night #054/064 (1.35 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Binding Mochi #055/064 (1.35 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Cassiopeia #056/064 (1.35 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Colress's Tenacity #057/064 (1.35 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Crobat #029/064 (1.35 expected per Elite Trainer Box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Absol (Reverse Holofoil) #030/064, Absol #030/064, Basic Darkness Energy (Holofoil) #098/064, Bewear (Holofoil) #079/064, Bloodmoon Ursaluna (Holofoil) #025/064, Cassiopeia (Holofoil) #086/064, Cassiopeia (Holofoil) #094/064, Dangerous Laser (Holofoil) #058/064, Joltik (Reverse Holofoil) #001/064. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 154 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Persian (Holofoil) #078/064 ($3.71), Houndoom (Holofoil) #066/064 ($2.94), Duskull (Holofoil) #068/064 ($2.73), Horsea (Holofoil) #067/064 ($2.49), Dusclops (Holofoil) #069/064 ($1.91). Together those five rows account for 26.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Elite Trainer Box EV × 9 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||