Scarlet & Violet—Obsidian Flames
Sealed product EV calculator
Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Scarlet & Violet—Obsidian Flames sealed products in one calculator. Choose Booster Box / Display, Elite Trainer Box, or Booster Bundle; the calculator uses the selected product's pack quantity and generated model while retaining the set's documented pull assumptions and live singles pricing.
Ordinary Basic Energy-slot cards, code cards, and sealed extras are not included in this calculation; numbered premium Energy cards remain in their rarity pools.
Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.
Set theme: Obsidian Flames spotlights Darkness-type Charizard ex, Terastal Pokémon ex like Tyranitar ex and Eiscue ex, and a compact Scarlet & Violet premium sheet with Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare chase cards.
Obsidian Flames pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable Obsidian Flames pack model. No exact publisher-published English rarity pull-rate table is available for Obsidian Flames, so these defaults remain TCGplayer/community estimates tuned to the TCGplayer Obsidian Flames pull-rate article. Reverse Holofoil cards are modeled across a guaranteed reverse slot plus a second reverse/premium slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to that bonus slot.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.
| Rarity / slot | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 13.61% (~1 in 7 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 13.61% |
| Ultra Rare | 6.63% (~1 in 15 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.63% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.60% (~1 in 13 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 7.60% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 3.13% (~1 in 32 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 3.13% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 1.92% (~1 in 52 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.92% |
Booster contents basis: all 10 modeled game-card positions in each of the selected 36, 9 or 6 packs are drawn before Sift and pool filters. Each pack's additional Basic Energy and code card are excluded. The standard 9-pack Elite Trainer Box also excludes its Charmander promo, 45 Energy cards, 65 sleeves and other accessories. The Pokémon Center 11-pack Elite Trainer Box is a distinct product and is not selected here. Missing exact-finish quotes are unavailable; foil multipliers do not substitute for them.
Validation targets: TCGplayer’s English Obsidian Flames pull-rate data, plus the official Obsidian Flames card list for premium numbering ranges and card names.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Scarlet & Violet—Obsidian Flames Sealed product
Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 406 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 11, 2026 contains 184 Common, 148 Uncommon, 21 Double Rare, 20 Rare, 12 Illustration Rare, 12 Ultra Rare. Its largest slot groups are 176 foil common, 92 nf common, 74 nf uncommon, 21 rare slot double rare, 12 illustration rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Claydol (Holofoil) #095/197 (2.87 expected per booster box), Darkrai (Holofoil) #136/197 (2.87 expected per booster box), Entei (Holofoil) #030/197 (2.87 expected per booster box), Geeta (Holofoil) #188/197 (2.87 expected per booster box), Palafin (Holofoil) #062/197 (2.87 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Absol ex (Holofoil) #135/197, Absol ex (Holofoil) #214/197, Altaria (Reverse Holofoil) #160/197, Altaria #160/197, Artazon (Holofoil) #229/197, Audino #173/197, Bellibolt (Holofoil) #201/197, Charizard ex (Holofoil) #223/197, Oddish (Reverse Holofoil) #001/197. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 406 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Charizard ex (Holofoil) #223/197 ($20.64), Ninetales (Holofoil) #199/197 ($10.42), Cleffa (Holofoil) #202/197 ($9.03), Charizard ex (Holofoil) #228/197 ($8.59), Gloom (Holofoil) #198/197 ($5.17). Together those five rows account for 34.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Box / Display EV × 36 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||