Scarlet & Violet—151
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator
Estimate the expected value (EV) of 151 elite trainer boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models the English Scarlet & Violet—151 pull structure with standard slots, rare-slot upgrades, one guaranteed Reverse Holofoil slot, and a bonus reverse/premium slot to produce realistic EV and variance projections.
Basic Energy (including Foil Energy), code cards, the Snorlax promo, and ETB accessories are not included in this calculation.
Each sealed product is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured 151 pull-rate assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.
Set theme: 151 revisits the original Kanto Pokédex in order, bringing all first-generation Pokémon back together in a special Scarlet & Violet set with Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare chase cards like Charizard ex, Blastoise ex, Erika’s Invitation, and Mew ex.
151 pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable 151 pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to the TCGplayer 151 pull-rate article. Reverse Holofoil cards are modeled across a guaranteed reverse slot plus a second reverse/premium slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to that bonus slot. Published Foil Energy odds are shown for reference only and are excluded with the Basic Energy slot.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.
| Rarity / slot | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 13.28% (~1 in 8 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 13.28% |
| Ultra Rare | 6.44% (~1 in 16 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.44% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 8.50% (~1 in 12 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 8.50% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 3.11% (~1 in 32 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 3.11% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 1.94% (~1 in 52 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.94% |
| Foil Energy | 24.83% (~1 in 4 packs) | Excluded with Basic Energy slot |
Validation targets: published English 151 pull-rate references, plus the official 151 card list for premium numbering ranges and card names.
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Box EV × 9 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||