Scarlet & Violet—Black Bolt
Sealed product EV calculator
Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Scarlet & Violet—Black Bolt sealed products in one calculator. Choose Elite Trainer Box or Booster Bundle; the calculator uses the selected product's pack quantity and generated model while retaining the set's documented pull assumptions and live singles pricing.
Basic Energy, code cards, and sealed extras are not included in this calculation.
Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.
Set theme: Black Bolt revisits Unova with Zekrom, a deep Illustration Rare lineup, and Poké Ball / Master Ball pattern parallels.
Black Bolt pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable Black Bolt pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to the TCGplayer Black Bolt / White Flare pull-rate article. Black White Rare chase cards are intentionally excluded from EV; the model treats them as nonexistent rather than preserving them as zero-EV pulls, so they are omitted from the simulation and per-card table.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.
| Rarity / parallel | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 21.11% (~1 in 5 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 21.11% |
| Ultra Rare | 5.83% (~1 in 17 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 5.83% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 16.39% (~1 in 6 packs) | Bonus-slot upgrade = 16.39% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.25% (~1 in 80 packs) | Showcase default = 1.25% |
| Master Ball Pattern | 5.14% (~1 in 19 packs) | Parallel-slot upgrade = 5.14% |
| Black White Rare (BWR) | Unknown in the source sample | Excluded from the model |
Validation target source: TCGplayer’s English Black Bolt / White Flare pull-rate data; Black White Rare chase cards are left out of this chase-excluded EV model.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Scarlet & Violet—Black Bolt Sealed product
Product profile. This Elite Trainer Box resolves 90 card positions across 402 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 13, 2026 contains 157 Common, 115 Uncommon, 69 Illustration Rare, 40 Rare, 8 Ultra Rare, 7 Special Illustration Rare. Its largest slot groups are 80 foil common, 80 poke ball pattern, 72 master ball pattern, 69 illustration rare, 39 nf common. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Antique Cover Fossil #080/086 (0.923 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Audino #074/086 (0.923 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Axew #068/086 (0.923 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Cubchoo #025/086 (0.923 expected per Elite Trainer Box), Darumaka #013/086 (0.923 expected per Elite Trainer Box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Air Balloon (Poke Ball Pattern) #079/086, Air Balloon (Reverse Holofoil) #079/086, Air Balloon #079/086, Alomomola (Holofoil) #108/086, Alomomola (Master Ball Pattern) #024/086, Beartic (Holofoil) #026/086, Drilbur #045/086, Excadrill ex (Holofoil) #046/086, Snivy (Master Ball Pattern) #001/086. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 402 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Seismitoad (Holofoil) #105/086 ($5.04), Zekrom ex (Holofoil) #166/086 ($4.64), Haxorus (Holofoil) #147/086 ($1.61), Volcarona (Holofoil) #100/086 ($1.33), Kyurem ex (Holofoil) #165/086 ($1.30). Together those five rows account for 20.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Enter a whole nonnegative product quantity. Previous values remain displayed until a valid quantity is entered.
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Elite Trainer Box EV × 9 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||