Arceus
Booster Box no-chase EV calculator

Estimate the English Arceus Booster Box (TCGplayer product 98593): 36 packs of 10 game cards. Exact Normal and Reverse Holofoil quotes come from generated local data; Market never borrows Low or another finish. All 360 game-card positions are drawn before user filtering.

Chase branches are excluded: holo rares, EX/GX/V/VMAX/VSTAR, secret rares, Shiny/Radiant/Trainer Gallery, illustration, hyper, ACE SPEC, and other premium rows do not contribute to this baseline.

Calculation order: ordinary pack contents are assigned to card rows first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied afterward. Disabled rows do not backfill into other cards.

36 packs / booster box AR · group 1391 5 Common / 3 Uncommon / 1 Rare / 1 Reverse Independent browser simulation

No-chase baseline

This documented no-chase scenario excludes Holo Rare, Pokémon LV.X and other documented premium outcomes before drawing. It normalizes eligible ordinary cards to 5 Common, 3 Uncommon, 1 non-holo Rare and 1 Common/Uncommon/Rare reverse-holo card per pack. The official Platinum—Arceus checklist supports all81 ordinary numbers13–93 in both nonfoil and reverse foil. One firsthand English pack shows5Common,3Uncommon,one ordinaryRare and an Arceus subset foil in the reverse position. The original no-chase scenario excludes foil-only Arceus AR1–AR9, HoloRare,LV.X and Shiny SH10–SH12 before drawing. Uniform allocation within32Common/29Uncommon/20Rare/81Reverse and generalizing the observed topology are modeling assumptions, not publisher-confirmed factory odds. Draw all 360 game-card positions first; Sift and included-pool filters apply afterward without reroll or backfill.

Guaranteed box toppers, standalone sealed-product inserts, non-game inserts, code cards, and standalone basic Energy insert slots are outside this no-chase model. Numbered Common/Uncommon Basic Energy rows remain modelable; Rare Basic Energy rows stay out of ordinary no-chase slots.

Loaded pools: waiting for card data.

Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor. Row tinting always uses the Sift value; EV only uses it when Use Sift in EV is checked.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Arceus Booster Box

Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 162 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 10, 2026 contains 64 Common, 58 Uncommon, 40 Rare. Its largest slot groups are 81 reverse standard, 32 nf common, 29 nf uncommon, 20 rare slot rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Bagon #52/99 (5.63 expected per booster box), Beedrill G #53/99 (5.63 expected per booster box), Bronzor (54) (5.63 expected per booster box), Buneary #55/99 (5.63 expected per booster box), Burmy Plant Cloak #56/99 (5.63 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aerodactyl (Reverse Holofoil) #13/99, Aerodactyl #13/99, Beginning Door #82/99, Burmy Sandy Cloak #57/99, Bronzong (14) (Reverse Holofoil), Bronzong (14), Cherrim (Reverse Holofoil) #15/99, Cherrim #15/99. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 162 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Gengar (17) ($106.13), Gengar (16) (Reverse Holofoil) ($81.18), Gengar (16) ($75.08), Gengar (17) (Reverse Holofoil) ($48.22), Pikachu #71/99 ($38.70). Together those five rows account for 35.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Selling Fees

Per-row net EV uses percentage and transaction fees. Per-order processing is controlled in purchase settings.

Value Threshold

Generated Pokemon price snapshots support Market, Low, and Direct Low pricing for EV.
Rows below Sift are removed from EV only if the toggle below is on.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; low and high are central quantiles from product openings.

Purchase EV

Whole boxes only (0–1,000); fractional and out-of-range input is normalized before calculating.

Adds the marketplace per-order processing fee in the purchase summary.
Waiting for card data...

Pack & Product EV

Pack and product no-chase expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Product EV x 36 packs (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per product$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/product (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level no-chase expected value using the active product count and order-fee settings.
All productsLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Products: 0 - Price/product: $0.00 - Total cost: $0.00 - Rows priced: 0 / 0 missing

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed booster box low prices compared to the current no-chase break-even price/product (mid).
Source Product price Break-even price/product (mid) P/E Basis
TCGplayer - - - Loading...
Loading sealed marketplace low prices...

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated product totals after cards are drawn, then Sift and pool toggles are applied to those pulls.
Per-card no-chase expected value rows for the current filters and price source.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Expected / product Gross EV Net EV Products / copy
Loading generated card data...
Deterministic total - active pools & Sift 0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -
Sanity total - all modeled ordinary rows 0.00 - - -
Expected copies are modeled from ordinary pack slots first. Gross and net EV apply disabled pool filters and optional Sift afterward, so filtered rows do not rebalance into other slots.