Mega Evolution – Phantasmal Flames
Sealed product EV calculator
Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Mega Evolution – Phantasmal Flames sealed products in one calculator. Choose Booster Box / Display, Elite Trainer Box, or Booster Bundle; the calculator uses the selected product's pack quantity and generated model while retaining the set's documented pull assumptions and live singles pricing.
Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.
Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.
Set theme: Mega Evolution – Phantasmal Flames is themed around spectral/fire-aligned Mega highlights and showcase chase pulls, combining competitive staples with collector-driven premium cards.
Mega Evolution–Phantasmal Flames pull-rate context (community estimates)
Own English Phantasmal Flames pack-opening evidence places Double Rare and Ultra Rare in the Rare position, and Illustration Rare and SIR in the second Reverse position. This scenario retains the original per-card aggregate hit expectations and uniform allocation; it does not adopt new factory odds. The two ordinary Reverse positions use Common, Uncommon or Rare Reverse Holofoil with retained 85:12:4.2 relative weights. The Rare remainder uses Holofoil. The former premium IR/UR allocation is derived from the unchanged normalized mixture and moved to the supported positions. Inputs exceeding a physical position are unavailable rather than silently normalized. Each pack has 10 modeled game cards plus an additional Basic Energy and code outside EV. Standard ETB Charcadet promo, 40 fixed Energy and accessories remain outside the original packs-only comparison. Own first-hand Phantasmal Flames source.
This calculator uses generated pricing with a configurable pack model. The community estimates below describe the separate Mega Evolution expansion and provide context only; they do not establish Phantasmal Flames factory odds or validate this retained scenario. Pokémon does not publish exact odds for these defaults. Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are intentionally excluded from EV totals in this tool.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.
| Rarity | Article range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Mega EX / Double Rare | ~20.9% (~1 in 5 packs) | Rare-slot Double Rare upgrade default = 20.9% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~10.9% (~1 in 9 packs) | Modeled through the configurable premium pool |
| Full Art Pokémon/Trainers | ~1 in 12 to 27 packs | Foil Rare+Epic default = 5.0% (~1 in 20) |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~1 in 78–100 packs | Showcase default = 1 in 89 packs |
| Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) | ~1 in 1,260 packs | Excluded from EV model |
Context source for the separate Mega Evolution expansion: TCGplayer — Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Pull Rates. These retained scenario defaults can be adjusted for comparison; price movements do not establish pull rates.
Included pools ▶
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Mega Evolution – Phantasmal Flames Sealed product
Product profile. This booster box resolves 360 card positions across 213 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 11, 2026 contains 86 Common, 62 Uncommon, 20 Rare, 17 Ultra Rare, 13 Illustration Rare, 10 Double Rare. Its largest slot groups are 43 foil common, 43 nf common, 31 foil uncommon, 31 nf uncommon, 30 foil epic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Alcremie #044/094 (3.48 expected per booster box), Archaludon #075/094 (3.48 expected per booster box), Battle Cage #085/094 (3.48 expected per booster box), Blowtorch #086/094 (3.48 expected per booster box), Brambleghast #047/094 (3.48 expected per booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Absol (Reverse Holofoil) #063/094, Absol #063/094, Alcremie (Reverse Holofoil) #044/094, Ambipom (Holofoil) #079/094, Ambipom (Holofoil) #107/094, Ambipom (Reverse Holofoil) #079/094, Bronzong #072/094, Dawn (Holofoil) #129/094, Oddish (Reverse Holofoil) #001/094. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 213 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Mega Charizard X ex (Holofoil) #125/094 ($57.63), Mega Charizard X ex (Holofoil) #013/094 ($3.48), Dawn (Holofoil) #129/094 ($1.81), Mega Gengar ex (Holofoil) #056/094 ($1.78), Mega Sharpedo ex (Holofoil) #127/094 ($1.68). Together those five rows account for 52.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.Simulation interval and run count
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Box / Display EV × 36 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||