Mega Evolution
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Pokémon Mega Evolution Elite Trainer Boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models booster slot composition, rarity-weighted pull assumptions, and treatment pools to produce realistic EV and variance projections.

Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.

Each ETB is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured rarity and premium-slot assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Mega Evolution is themed around powerful returning Mega forms and premium rarity chase cards, with pull structures tuned to reflect the set's collector-forward identity.

9 packs / ETB Model defaults calibrated against TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate guidance Base slots: 4 Common • 3 Uncommon • 1 Rare-or-better (per-slot Epic upgrade) Premium slot: Foil, with Showcase replacement at configured pack rate Rare/Epic from Rare‑slots can use foil pricing Illustration slot: configurable bonus slot for premium pulls

Mega Evolution pull-rate context (community estimates)

This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable pack model. Community pull-rate references are listed below for context and validated against the TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate article. Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are intentionally excluded from EV totals in this tool.

Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.

RarityArticle rangeModel default
Mega EX / Double Rare~20.9% (~1 in 5 packs)Rare-slot upgrade default = 20.9%
Illustration Rare (IR)~10.9% (~1 in 9 packs)Modeled via premium slot mix + row pools
Full Art Pokémon/Trainers~1 in 12 to 27 packsFoil Rare+Epic default = 5.0% (~1 in 20)
Special Illustration Rare (SIR)~1 in 78–100 packsShowcase default = 1 in 89 packs
Mega Hyper Rare (MHR)~1 in 1,260 packsExcluded from EV model

Validation target source: TCGplayer — Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Pull Rates. Defaults are tuned to this range and can be adjusted if market behavior shifts.

Included pools
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.
Counts — Main (NF)
Counts — Rare slot
Counts — Foil slot
Counts — Showcase
Sanity

Selling Fees

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially lower EV if Market/Mid are stale. “Min” is most conservative.
Example: 0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
ETB EV × 9 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost
Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees ETBs / copy
Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift 0.00
Preparing…
ETBs / copy = 1 ÷ expected copies per box (36 × per‑pack probability). EV uses Sift only when Use Sift (≥) is checked; row tinting always uses the numeric Sift value.