Mega Evolution
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Pokémon Mega Evolution Elite Trainer Boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models booster slot composition, rarity-weighted pull assumptions, and treatment pools to produce realistic EV and variance projections.

Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.

Each ETB is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured rarity and premium-slot assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Mega Evolution is themed around powerful returning Mega forms and premium rarity chase cards, with pull structures tuned to reflect the set's collector-forward identity.

9 packs / ETB Model defaults calibrated against TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate guidance Base slots: 4 Common • 3 Uncommon • 1 Rare-or-better Premium slot: Foil, Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare, or Showcase Rare/Double Rare from Rare‑slots can use foil pricing Premium rarity defaults use distinct community pull-rate buckets

Mega Evolution pull-rate context (community estimates)

This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable pack model. Community pull-rate references are listed below for context and validated against the TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate article. Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are intentionally excluded from EV totals in this tool.

Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.

Community pull-rate context compared with the default MEG ETB model.
RarityArticle rangeModel default
Mega EX / Double Rare~20.9% (~1 in 5 packs)Rare-slot Double Rare default = 20.91%
Illustration Rare (IR)~10.9% (~1 in 9 packs)Premium slot Illustration Rare default = 10.89%
Full Art Pokémon/Trainers~1 in 12 to 27 packsPremium slot Ultra Rare default = 8.23%
Special Illustration Rare (SIR)~1 in 78–100 packsShowcase default = 1 in 89 packs
Mega Hyper Rare (MHR)~1 in 1,260 packsExcluded from EV model

Validation target source: TCGplayer — Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Pull Rates. Defaults are tuned to this range and can be adjusted if market behavior shifts.

Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.
Counts — Main (NF)
Counts — Rare slot
Counts — Foil slot
Counts — Showcase
Sanity

Selling Fees

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially lower EV if Market/Mid are stale. “Min” is most conservative.
Example: 0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Booster Pack & ETB EV

Booster-pack-only expected value inside each ETB across low, mid, and high estimates. Promo and accessory value is excluded.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Booster EV inside ETB × 9 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross booster EV per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net booster EV after fees per ETB$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per ETB$0.00$0.00$0.00
Booster-only break-even price/ETB (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level expected value and profit after fees and entered costs.
All ETBsLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost———
ETBs: 0 • Price/ETB: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated booster contents inside an ETB after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = booster-only ETB value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Card-level expected value rows by modeled pack slot and active filters.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees ETBs / copy
Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift 0.00