Mega Evolution
Booster bundle EV calculator
Estimate the expected value (EV) of Pokémon booster bundles using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models booster slot composition, rarity-weighted pull assumptions, and treatment pools to produce realistic EV and variance projections.
Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.
Each sealed bundle is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured rarity and premium-slot assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.
Set theme: Mega Evolution is themed around powerful returning Mega forms and premium rarity chase cards, with pull structures tuned to reflect the set's collector-forward identity.
Mega Evolution pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable pack model. Community pull-rate references are listed below for context and validated against the TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate article. Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are intentionally excluded from EV totals in this tool.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.
| Rarity | Article range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Mega EX / Double Rare | ~20.9% (~1 in 5 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade default = 20.9% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~10.9% (~1 in 9 packs) | Modeled via premium slot mix + row pools |
| Full Art Pokémon/Trainers | ~1 in 12 to 27 packs | Ultra Rare premium-slot default = 8.23% (~1 in 12) |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~1 in 78–100 packs | SIR premium-slot default = 0.99% (~1 in 101) |
| Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) | ~1 in 1,260 packs | Excluded from EV model |
Validation target source: TCGplayer — Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Pull Rates. Defaults are tuned to this range and can be adjusted if market behavior shifts.
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Bundle EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Bundle EV × 6 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price/bundle (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All bundles | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Bundles / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / bundle) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||