Mega Evolution
Booster box EV calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Pokémon booster boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models booster slot composition, rarity-weighted pull assumptions, and treatment pools to produce realistic EV and variance projections.

Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.

Each sealed box is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured rarity and premium-slot assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Mega Evolution is themed around powerful returning Mega forms and premium rarity chase cards, with pull structures tuned to reflect the set's collector-forward identity.

36 packs / box Model defaults calibrated against TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate guidance Base slots: 4 Common • 3 Uncommon • 1 Rare-or-better (per-rarity upgrade rates) Premium slot: Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, SIR, or foil C/U/R Rare and premium rare rows use live foil pricing by default Double Rare, Ultra Rare, and Illustration Rare are modeled as separate pools

Mega Evolution pull-rate context (community estimates)

This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable pack model. Community pull-rate references are listed below for context and validated against the TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate article. Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are intentionally excluded from EV totals in this tool.

Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.

Mega Evolution sample pull-rate assumptions used by the default model.
RarityArticle rangeModel default
Double Rare20.91% (~1 in 5 packs)Separate rare-slot branch = 20.91%
Ultra Rare8.23% (~1 in 12 packs)Separate premium-slot branch = 8.23%
Illustration Rare (IR)10.89% (~1 in 9 packs)Separate premium-slot branch = 10.89%
Special Illustration Rare (SIR)0.99% (~1 in 101 packs)Showcase default = 0.99%
Mega Hyper Rare (MHR)0.08% (~1 in 1,260 packs)Excluded from EV model

Validation target source: TCGplayer — Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Pull Rates. Defaults are tuned to this range and can be adjusted if market behavior shifts.

Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.
Counts — Main (NF)
Counts — Rare slot
Counts — Foil slot
Counts — Showcase
Sanity

Selling Fees

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially lower EV if Market/Mid are stale. “Min” is most conservative.
Example: 0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV × 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level expected value and profit across low, mid, and high estimates.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost———
Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Card-level expected pulls and value by modeled pool.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Boxes / copy
Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift 0.00