Chaos Rising
Booster bundle EV calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Pokemon TCG: Chaos Rising booster bundles using generated card and price snapshots for set code CRI.

Promos, Basic Energy, code cards, and the checklist’s Mega Hyper Rare #122/086 are excluded from EV.

Each sealed bundle is simulated pack-by-pack using the configurable rarity and premium-slot assumptions shown below. Cards are always drawn first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied afterward; disabled pools do not backfill slots.

Checklist-aware buckets: the Chaos Rising checklist places standard-set cards at #001–086, illustration rares at #087–097, ultra rares at #098–115, special illustration rares at #116–121, and a Mega Hyper Rare at #122.

Set code: CRI 6 packs / bundle Checklist-aware rarity overrides for #087–122 Base slots: 4 Common • 3 Uncommon • 1 Rare-or-better Premium slot: foil, with SIR replacement at configured pack rate Official inner-slot odds not published; defaults remain configurable

Chaos Rising model assumptions

This calculator is checklist-aware and price-driven. The generated card list anchors the special-card ranges, while the configurable pack model estimates how those cards enter pack EV. Official inner-slot odds for Chaos Rising are not published, so Pokemon pull-rate assumptions are community-estimated, transparent, and editable.

Simulation order: each pack is drawn first, then disabled pools and optional Sift filtering are applied to the drawn cards. Disabled pools do not backfill slots.

Checklist rangeRarity bucketModel treatment
#001–086Standard setUses generated rarity labels for Common / Uncommon / Rare / Double Rare
#087–097Illustration Rare (IR)Forced into the higher-rarity pool
#098–115Ultra Rare (UR)Forced into the higher-rarity pool
#116–121Special Illustration Rare (SIR)Modeled as the dedicated premium replacement slot
#122Mega Hyper Rare (MHR)Excluded from EV totals

Defaults stay configurable on purpose. If Chaos Rising-specific pack data becomes available later, update the slot assumptions rather than pruning pools before the draw.

Included pools ▶
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.
Counts — Main (NF)
Counts — Rare slot
Counts — Foil slot
Counts — SIR
Sanity

Selling Fees

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Generated price snapshots may not include every source for every card; unavailable source values fall back only within the same source family.
Example: 0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Pack & Bundle EV

Pack and bundle expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Bundle EV × 6 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break‑even price/bundle (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

All bundlesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost———
Bundles: 0 • Price/bundle: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated bundle totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = bundle value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Bundles / copy
Total (Expected / bundle) — active pools & Sift 0.00