Mega Evolution – Ascended Heroes
Sealed product EV calculator

Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Mega Evolution – Ascended Heroes sealed products in one calculator. Choose Elite Trainer Box, Booster Bundle; the calculator uses the selected product's pack quantity and generated model while retaining the set's documented pull assumptions and live singles pricing.

Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.

Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.

Set theme: Mega Evolution–Ascended Heroes is themed around high-impact Mega Evolution chase cards and hero-focused spotlight Pokémon, blending premium collector hits with standard booster-box pull structure.

9 packs / Elite Trainer Box 9 12 items / pack: 10 random game cards + 1 basic energy + 1 code card EV model uses the 10 random game cards; energy + code are modeled at $0 Foil slot: configurable rarity mix Scarlet & Violet era structure with guaranteed foil presence is approximated in rarity mixes Illustration/premium hit rates are configurable and shown in the table below

About this Ascended Heroes ETB calculator

This calculator models the standard Mega Evolution–Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box configuration (9 booster packs per ETB). Each pack contains 12 physical items: 10 random game cards, 1 Basic Energy, and 1 code card. For EV, the 10 random game cards are valued from TCGCSV market data, while energy/code are treated as $0.

Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then any optional Sift threshold is applied to those drawn cards.

Estimated pull-rate references (community-derived)

These are guidance ranges used for rarity context only; Pokémon does not publish official odds. Validation target source: TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate reporting. The EV model keeps DR/IR/UR/MAR as separate rare-slot branches and SIR as its own Showcase branch rather than treating these assumptions as publisher rates.

Community-derived rarity context used to label the premium and Showcase assumptions.
RarityApproximate pull rate
Double Rare (DR)~1 in 5 packs (~20%)
Illustration Rare (IR)~1 in 9 packs (~11%)
Ultra Rare (UR)~1 in 12 packs (~8%)
Mega Attack Rare (MAR)~1 in 41 packs (within UR pool)
Special Illustration Rare (SIR)~1 in 72 packs (~1.39%)
Mega Hyper Rare (MHR)~1 in 1,260 packs (~0.08%) — excluded from EV

Common chase cards

Included pools
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.
Counts — Main (NF)
Counts — Rare slot
Counts — Foil slot
Counts — Showcase
Sanity

Selling Fees

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially lower EV if Market prices are stale.
Example: 0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Pack & ETB EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
ETB EV × 9 packs (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/ETB (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level EV, fees, profit, and ROI for the selected number of ETBs.
All ETBsLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost
ETBs: 0 • Price/ETB: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated ETB totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = ETB value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Card-level expected value rows for the Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box pack-contents model.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees ETBs / copy
Total (Expected / ETB) — active pools & Sift 0.00