Mega Evolution – Ascended Heroes
Sealed product EV calculator
Compare the expected value (EV) of supported Mega Evolution – Ascended Heroes sealed products in one calculator. Choose Elite Trainer Box, Booster Bundle; the calculator uses the selected product's pack quantity and generated model while retaining the set's documented pull assumptions and live singles pricing.
Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.
Calculation order: every pack's full card contents are drawn first. Disabled pools and optional Sift filtering apply only afterward and never backfill removed outcomes.
Set theme: Mega Evolution–Ascended Heroes is themed around high-impact Mega Evolution chase cards and hero-focused spotlight Pokémon, blending premium collector hits with standard booster-box pull structure.
About this Ascended Heroes ETB calculator
This calculator models the standard Mega Evolution–Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box configuration (9 booster packs per ETB). Each pack contains 12 physical items: 10 random game cards, 1 Basic Energy, and 1 code card. For EV, the 10 random game cards are valued from TCGCSV market data, while energy/code are treated as $0.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then any optional Sift threshold is applied to those drawn cards.
Estimated pull-rate references (community-derived)
These are guidance ranges used for rarity context only; Pokémon does not publish official odds. Validation target source: TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate reporting. The EV model keeps DR/IR/UR/MAR as separate rare-slot branches and SIR as its own Showcase branch rather than treating these assumptions as publisher rates.
| Rarity | Approximate pull rate |
|---|---|
| Double Rare (DR) | ~1 in 5 packs (~20%) |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~1 in 9 packs (~11%) |
| Ultra Rare (UR) | ~1 in 12 packs (~8%) |
| Mega Attack Rare (MAR) | ~1 in 41 packs (within UR pool) |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~1 in 72 packs (~1.39%) |
| Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) | ~1 in 1,260 packs (~0.08%) — excluded from EV |
Common chase cards
- Mega Gengar ex (Special Illustration Rare)
- Mega Charizard Y ex (Mega Hyper Rare)
- Mega Dragonite ex (Special Illustration Rare / Mega Hyper Rare)
- Lillie’s Clefairy ex (Special Illustration Rare)
- Pikachu ex (Special Illustration Rare variants)
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & ETB EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ETB EV × 9 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price/ETB (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All ETBs | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Sealed Price / EV
Advertising disclosure: As an eBay Partner Network affiliate, The Expected Value may earn from qualifying purchases. Some marketplace links are affiliate links.
| Source | ETB price | Break-even price/ETB (mid) | P/E | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCGplayer | — | — | — | Loading… |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | ETBs / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / ETB) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||