Mega Evolution – Ascended Heroes
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator
Estimate the expected value (EV) of Mega Evolution–Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Boxes (ETBs) using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models ETB pack composition, rarity-weighted pull assumptions, and treatment pools to produce realistic EV and variance projections.
Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.
The model treats each ETB as 9 booster pack openings with EV based on the 10 random game cards per pack (energy/code components remain non-EV inserts). Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.
Set theme: Mega Evolution–Ascended Heroes is themed around high-impact Mega Evolution chase cards and hero-focused spotlight Pokémon, blending premium collector hits with standard booster-box pull structure.
About this Ascended Heroes ETB calculator
This calculator models the standard Mega Evolution–Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box configuration (9 booster packs per ETB). Each pack contains 12 physical items: 10 random game cards, 1 Basic Energy, and 1 code card. For EV, the 10 random game cards are valued from TCGCSV market data, while energy/code are treated as $0.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then any optional Sift threshold is applied to those drawn cards.
Estimated pull-rate references (community-derived)
These are guidance ranges used for rarity context only; Pokémon does not publish official odds. Validation target source: TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate reporting.
| Rarity | Approximate pull rate |
|---|---|
| Double Rare (DR) | ~1 in 5 packs (~20%) |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~1 in 9 packs (~11%) |
| Ultra Rare (UR) | ~1 in 12 packs (~8%) |
| Mega Attack Rare (MAR) | ~1 in 41 packs (within UR pool) |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~1 in 101 packs (~1%) |
| Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) | ~1 in 1,260 packs (~0.08%) — excluded from EV |
Common chase cards
- Mega Gengar ex (Special Illustration Rare)
- Mega Charizard Y ex (Mega Hyper Rare)
- Mega Dragonite ex (Special Illustration Rare / Mega Hyper Rare)
- Lillie’s Clefairy ex (Special Illustration Rare)
- Pikachu ex (Special Illustration Rare variants)
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & ETB EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ETB EV × 9 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per ETB (Purchase ÷ ETBs) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price/ETB (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All ETBs | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | ETBs / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / ETB) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||