Avatar: The Last Airbender Play Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Avatar: The Last Airbender Play Booster boxes using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots. Published slot rates and disclosed residual allocations define the model; generated snapshot dates are shown with price coverage.

Model assumptions & evidence

Each sealed box is modeled using the pack and card-slot configuration listed below, including product-specific bonus-sheet or treatment behavior where applicable. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Avatar: The Last Airbender is themed around elemental bending, nations in conflict, and character-driven moments from the series, adapted into Magic card slots and crossover showcase treatments.

30 packs / box 14 game cards / pack (non-game items excluded) Source Material (TLE): 1 in 26 packs replaces a common — nonfoil only

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

30 packs / box 14 game cards / pack (non-game items excluded) Source Material (TLE): 1 in 26 packs replaces a common — nonfoil only

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from generated card-prices snapshots. TCG, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket choices use the same card rows; EV applies Sift only after each pack's contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.

Use Sift (≥) in EV

Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Free shipping?

Included setsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break‑even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	—	—	—	Loading…
TCGplayer	—	—	—	Loading…
eBay	—	—	—	Loading…
Amazon	—	—	—	Loading…

How to read this: Think of P/E as “dollars paid for each $1 of expected card value.” 1.00x means the box price and the current mid EV are the same. 1.25x means you are paying $125 for each $100 of expected value. 0.90x means you are paying $90 for each $100 of expected value. Lower is cheaper relative to EV, but EV is only an average estimate, not guaranteed profit.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —

Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Simulated box EV (30 packs)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees per box (before acquisition cost) (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Net Proceeds

All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees (before acquisition cost)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI (enter cost)	—	—	—

Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Avatar: The Last Airbender Play Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 30 packs / box
Cards: 14 game cards / pack (non-game items excluded)
Product detail: Source Material (TLE): 1 in 26 packs replaces a common — nonfoil only
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Avatar: The Last Airbender Play Booster is modeled with 14 game-card slots.

Commons7 cards / pack

Pool: 142 modeled card outcomes.Common block: 6.9615 expected / pack.Common block source material replacement: 0.0385 expected / pack (3.85% expected per pack).

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 114 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 50 modeled card outcomes.Land: 1 expected / pack.

Wildcard1 card / pack

Pool: 333 modeled card outcomes.Wildcard: 1 expected / pack.

Foil Wildcard1 card / pack

Pool: 333 modeled card outcomes.Foil wildcard: 1 expected / pack.

Rare / mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 138 modeled card outcomes.Rare / mythic: 1 expected / pack.

Future EV calculations should draw all 14 game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

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Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value	Seller fees	Boxes / copy
Total (Expected copies / box) — included sets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total (Expected / box) — all modeled rows (game cards)							0.00
Gap to 420 cards/box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift & set toggles; exclude non‑game items)

Calculator notes

Product: one 30-pack box contains 420 game cards. All 14 cards per pack are drawn before Sift or included-pool scoring, without reroll or backfill.
Chase policy: Neon Ink 359–362 and Raised Foil 363 are absent from this default model. Collector-only treatments and foil Source Material are outside Play contents.
Allocations: existing wildcard 2.4%, rare 2% and foil 1.5% residual shares are uniform across eligible physical printings within the original residual groups. Individual factory weights are unpublished. The uncommon scene 3.6% replacement is modeled per pack; this independent allocation is retained.
Checklist qualification: the publisher article describes 15 rare and 5 mythic elemental cards, while its exact checklist 336–353 enumerates 18 physical printings (15 rare/3 mythic). The backs of 346 and 347 are faces of those cards, not extra outcomes. This model follows the exact checklist and normalizes eligible slot contents.
Results: Low/Mid/High use one recalculated sample set; quantity 1 uses the same full-box population. Missing exact selected-basis quotes remain unavailable and a priced subtotal is not a complete valuation.