Murders at Karlov Manor Play Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Murders at Karlov Manor Play Booster boxes using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots. Using the displayed snapshot date, this calculator uses published slot contents with disclosed rarity and treatment allocation assumptions to model box value.

Model assumptions & evidence

Each sealed box is modeled using the pack and card-slot configuration listed below, including product-specific bonus-sheet or treatment behavior where applicable. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Murders at Karlov Manor is themed as a Ravnican murder mystery, centering detectives, clues, suspects, and case-solving flavor throughout gameplay and visual presentation.

36 packs / box 14 cards / pack (game cards) The List + SPG: 12.5% of packs (SPG 1.56%; List C/U 9.38%; List R/M 1.56%) Rare duals: 1 in 6 wildcard (≈14.58% regular; ≈2.08% borderless) Basic slot: 53.3334% reg NF; 13.3333% reg foil; 26.6666% full‑art NF; 6.6667% full‑art foil

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from generated card-prices snapshots. TCG, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket choices use the same card rows; EV applies Sift only after each pack's contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.

Use Sift (≥) in EV

Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

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Included setsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break‑even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	—	—	—	Loading…
TCGplayer	—	—	—	Loading…
eBay	—	—	—	Loading…
Amazon	—	—	—	Loading…

How to read this: Think of P/E as “dollars paid for each $1 of expected card value.” 1.00x means the box price and the current mid EV are the same. 1.25x means you are paying $125 for each $100 of expected value. 0.90x means you are paying $90 for each $100 of expected value. Lower is cheaper relative to EV, but EV is only an average estimate, not guaranteed profit.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —

Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Simulated box EV (36 packs)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees per box (before acquisition cost) (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Net Proceeds

Purchase expected value and financial summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees (before acquisition cost)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI (enter cost)	—	—	—

Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Murders at Karlov Manor Play Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 14 cards / pack (game cards)
Product detail: The List + SPG: 12.5% of packs (SPG 1.56%; List C/U 9.38%; List R/M 1.56%)
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Murders at Karlov Manor Play Booster is modeled with 14 game-card slots.

Commons7.3843 expected / pack

Pool: 93 physical printing outcomes (81 mechanical common subjects, including showcase and puzzle variants).Common block and wildcard common share: 7.3843 expected / pack.

Uncommons3.2546 expected / pack

Pool: 128 physical printing outcomes (100 mechanical uncommon subjects, including showcase and puzzle variants).Uncommon slots and wildcard uncommon share: 3.2546 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 30 modeled card outcomes.Land slot regular basic lands: 0.5333 expected / pack (53.33% expected per pack).Land slot impossible basic lands: 0.2667 expected / pack (26.67% expected per pack).Land slot foil regular basic lands: 0.1333 expected / pack (13.33% expected per pack).Land slot foil impossible basic lands: 0.0667 expected / pack (6.67% expected per pack).

Rare / Mythic1.0694 expected / pack

Pool: 130 physical printing outcomes (60 rare and 20 mythic subjects, with disclosed treatment allocation).Rare slot and non-dual wildcard rare share: 0.9167 expected / pack (91.67% expected per pack).Rare slot and non-dual wildcard mythic share: 0.1528 expected / pack (15.28% expected per pack).

Wildcard0.1667 expected / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Wildcard regular rare dual lands: 0.1458 expected / pack (14.58% expected per pack).Wildcard borderless rare dual lands: 0.0208 expected / pack (2.08% expected per pack).

Foil Wildcard1 card / pack

Pool: 340 physical printing outcomes; regular and borderless rare duals are both eligible.Foil wildcard common share: 0.6111 expected / pack (61.11% expected per pack).Foil wildcard uncommon share: 0.3056 expected / pack (30.56% expected per pack).Foil wildcard rare share excluding duals: approximately 0.058 expected / pack (5.8%); uniform per-printing sheet assumption.Foil wildcard mythic share: 0.0119 expected / pack (1.19% expected per pack).Foil wildcard regular duals: approximately 0.0067 expected / pack; borderless duals: approximately 0.0067 expected / pack.

The List / Special Guests Common Replacement0.125 expected / pack

Pool: 50 modeled card outcomes.The List common/uncommon replacement: 0.0938 expected / pack (9.38% expected per pack).The List rare/mythic replacement: 0.0156 expected / pack (1.56% expected per pack).The List Special Guests replacement: 0.0156 expected / pack (1.56% expected per pack).

Future EV calculations should draw all 14 game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Ad/token/suspect punch-out/art card: The non-playable insert slot is excluded from EV. Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

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Modeled card rows with set, treatment, value, seller fees, and average boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total (Expected copies / box) — included sets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total (Expected / box) — all modeled rows (game cards)							0.00
Gap to 504 cards/box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift & set toggles)

Calculator notes

Model: Model basis: 36 Play Boosters with 14 game cards each. Published contents include the 1-in-8 List/Special Guests replacement, 1-in-6 rare dual wildcard branch, and basic-land splits. The existing 6:1 rare/mythic ratio, non-dual wildcard and foil rarity splits, two-thirds regular versus one-third C/U showcase allocation, uniform printing weights (including puzzle a/b variants), and independent slot draws are modeling assumptions, not exact factory collation. Puzzle variants share one mechanical card identity. Regular and borderless rare duals are eligible in the foil slot; their equal per-printing weights retain the existing sheet assumption. Wizards’ rounded 1.56% / 9.38% / 1.56% List rates and rounded basic-land reconciliation are retained. Serialized and Collector-only printings are excluded before constructing complete packs. All 504 game cards are drawn before Sift or pool filters score them; rejected cards never reroll or backfill. Quotes are dated generated snapshots, not live prices.
Simulation: Low, Mid, and High come from the same recalculated result set.
Pricing: existing generated price snapshots, fee handling, and marketplace sealed-price behavior are preserved.
Presentation: desktop rows become searchable result cards below 800px without changing the underlying EV rows.