Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster boxes using live TCGplayer market prices. Updated daily, this calculator uses official slot odds, rarity weighting, and treatment mappings to model realistic pack value projections.

Each sealed box is modeled using the pack and card-slot configuration listed below, including product-specific bonus-sheet or treatment behavior where applicable. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Modern Horizons 3 is themed as a direct-to-Modern power set, built around high-synergy cards, returning fan-favorite concepts, and complex build-arounds aimed at experienced constructed and limited players.

36 packs / box 14 cards / pack (game cards) New‑to‑Modern (N2M): 1/pack SPG: 1/64 replaces a common Land slot: 50% common • 20% basic (NF) • 13.3% basic (foil) • 10% Eldrazi basic (NF) • 6.7% Eldrazi basic (foil) Rare slot: 79.8% R • 13.0% M • 2.1% retro R/M • 5.1% borderless R/M Excludes MH3 #447–467 (CB‑only), #468+ & “z”; M3C ≤16; Wastes via wildcard only

Selling Fees

TCGplayer seller type

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Mid and Low pull from TCGCSV (TCGplayer mirror). “Min” chooses the lowest non-null value, and Market falls back to whichever price is available.

Sift

Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.

Use Sift (≥) in EV

Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

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Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV × 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	—	—	—

Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —

Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total (Expected / box) — included sets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total (Expected / box) — all modeled rows (game cards)							0.00
Gap to 504 cards/box							0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift & set toggles; exclude non‑game items)

Preparing…

Boxes / copy = 1 ÷ expected copies per box (36 × per‑pack probability). EV uses Sift only when Use Sift (≥) is checked; row tinting always uses the numeric Sift value.