Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Play Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of a Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Play Booster Display from the generated play-box model and HOB daily price snapshots.

The calculator draws the full box contents first from generated slot contributions, then applies included-pool toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Display contents: 30 Play Boosters plus one traditional foil Middle-earth classic artist box topper, for 421 modeled game cards.

Prerelease / provisional EV: Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit releases on August 14, 2026. Singles and sealed prices are still forming and may move quickly before release.

Best-estimate probability note: Published percentages are applied first; the remaining probability is divided evenly among the named Play Booster pools Wizards labels only as less than 1%.

Chase exclusion: The approximately 500-copy Gleaming Gold Smaug is absent from card prices, simulations, stored EV, sealed P/E, and Market Ping. The non-chase foil Booster Fun outcomes are normalized to fill that slot.

30 packs / box14 game cards / pack421 modeled game cards / boxGenerated HOB Play Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Content Snapshot

Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Play Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 30 packs / box
Cards: 14 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 421 modeled game cards / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Magic: The Gathering | The Hobbit Play Booster is modeled with 14 game-card slots.

Commons7 cards / pack

Pool: 144 modeled card outcomes.Common block: 6.9583 expected / pack.Common block source material replacement: 0.0417 expected / pack (4.17% expected per pack).

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 111 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Land: 1 expected / pack.

Wildcard1 card / pack

Pool: 352 modeled card outcomes.Wildcard: 1 expected / pack.

Foil Wildcard1 card / pack

Pool: 352 modeled card outcomes.Foil wildcard: 1 expected / pack.

Rare / mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 152 modeled card outcomes.Rare / mythic: 1 expected / pack.

Future EV calculations should draw all 14 game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Included model poolsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading generated model pools...

Sift and disabled pools are applied after the box contents are drawn; removed rows do not backfill.

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from data-prices/magic/hob/card-prices.json.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Display EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit after selected fees and costs.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: As an eBay Partner Network affiliate, The Expected Value may earn from qualifying purchases. Some marketplace links are affiliate links.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-pool filters are applied.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Modeled Play Booster box card rows, prices, fees, and expected boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value	Seller fees	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included pools & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 421 modeled game cards / box							0.00

Expected / box0.00

Sanity check totals

Model source: data-static/magic/hob/models/play-box.json. Draw all slots first, then apply Sift and pool filters afterward.