Reality Fracture Play Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the opened-card value of Reality Fracture Play Booster Box, compare sealed prices, and apply your selling fees and Sift threshold.

Model assumptions & evidence

Every Play Booster has a three-card echoed-pairs block containing a matched pair. The matching relationship matters for the range of box outcomes; three independent card draws would not preserve it.

Complete contents, including correlated echoed pairs, are drawn before Sift or pool filters score them. Filtered cards are never rerolled or backfilled.

Prelaunch / provisional prices: Reality Fracture releases October 2, 2026. Prices and card coverage can change sharply before release. Missing prices contribute $0 to this lower-bound estimate; that does not value those cards at $0.
30 Play Boosters14 game cards per booster420 game cards per box
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load first from /data-prices/magic/fra/calculator-prices.json; card-prices.json is used only if the compact runtime sidecar does not cover the model.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model poolsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Sift and disabled pools are applied after the box contents are drawn; removed rows do not backfill.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-pool filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
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Net proceeds after fees per box (before acquisition cost)———
Break-even price/box (mid)—

Purchase EV & Net Proceeds

Purchase expected value and profit after selected fees and costs.
All boxesLowMidHigh
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Net proceeds after fees (before acquisition cost)———
ROI (enter cost)---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Reality Fracture Play Booster Box Contents

Every Play Booster has a three-card echoed-pairs block containing a matched pair. The matching relationship matters for the range of box outcomes; three independent card draws would not preserve it.

Game cards
420
Rows
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Product Structure

Each box contains 30 Play Boosters. Every booster is modeled with the complete 14-card structure below.

Commons / Special Guests6 cards / booster
Five slots always draw from the 71-card FRA common pool.The sixth slot is a common unless 1 of 55 boosters replaces it with 1 of 10 nonfoil Special Guests cards.
Uncommon1 card / booster
43 regular uncommons (96.2%) or an uncommon braintwister series card (3.8%); echoed-pairs cards do not appear here.
Common / Uncommon1 card / booster
A regular common (23%), regular uncommon (74%), or uncommon braintwister series card (3%); echoed-pairs cards do not appear here.
Echoed Pairs3 cards / booster
Includes a verified same-rarity matched pair plus one independently drawn echoed card.Main-frame rates are 88.9% uncommon, 6.7% rare, and 1.4% mythic rare. Borderless rates are 1.7% uncommon plus the modeled 0.65% rare and 0.65% mythic allocations from the published less-than-1% branches.
Rare / Mythic1 card / booster
Regular-frame rates are 74.4% rare and 14.8% mythic rare.Booster Fun rates are shattered mirror (1% rare / modeled 0.45% mythic), sculptor's stronghold (3.8% / 1%), braintwister series (3.1% / modeled 0.45%), and portal view (1%).
Traditional Foil1 card / booster
Main-set rates are 49.5% common, 40.5% uncommon, 6% rare, and 1.2% mythic rare.The remaining 2.8% is divided across the nine published less-than-1% borderless echoed, braintwister, sculptor's stronghold, and portal view branches as disclosed by the model.
Land1 card / booster
Default basic: 14.6% nonfoil or 3.6% traditional foil; tower basic: 21.8% nonfoil or 5.5% traditional foil.Common dual land: 43.6% nonfoil or 10.9% traditional foil.

All 420 game-card positions belong to the complete product before Sift or pool filtering. Tokens, art cards, packaging, and accessories are not valued as singles.

Showing all cards
Modeled Play Booster box card rows, prices, fees, and expected boxes per copy.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValueSeller feesBoxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included pools & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00
Loading model and price coverage...
Model source: /data-static/magic/fra/models/play-box.json. Draw all slots first, then apply Sift and pool filters afterward.