Aetherdrift Play Booster Box EV Calculator

One box contains 30 fourteen-card Play Boosters and a two-card First-Place Box Topper. The conditional, while-supplies-last Lifecraft Engine Buy-a-Box promo is not included.

Model assumptions & evidence

Model assumptions: cards within each published odds bucket are equally weighted; pack and slot independence approximates factory collation. Wizards' rounded wildcard rates total 99.9% and are normalized to one complete slot. Wizards' Aetherdrift contents and odds.

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Aetherdrift Play Booster boxes using generated TCGplayer price snapshots. Prices reflect the snapshot dates shown below. The model uses published slot odds and the allocation assumptions described here.

Each sealed box is modeled using the pack and card-slot configuration listed below, including product-specific bonus-sheet or treatment behavior where applicable. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Aetherdrift is themed around high-speed interplanar racing, emphasizing vehicles, pilots, momentum, and spectacle-driven card treatments tied to the Grand Prix-style setting.

30 packs / box 14 game cards / pack SPG in packs: 84–93 (non‑foil) Topper EV toggle in Included sets

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from generated card-prices snapshots. TCG, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket choices use the same card rows; EV applies Sift only after each pack's contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands.

Use Sift (≥) in EV

Low/High = central quantiles measured from slot-based Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Free shipping?

Included setsChoose which booster pools and whether the Box Topper count toward EV.Play + topper

DFT — Normal (nonfoil) DFT — Normal (foil) DFT — Borderless (nonfoil + foil) SPG — Special Guests (nonfoil in Play) DFT — Land slot (basics + common duals; foil/nonfoil) Box Toppers — include in EV

Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break‑even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	—	—	—	Loading…
TCGplayer	—	—	—	Loading…
eBay	—	—	—	Loading…
Amazon	—	—	—	Loading…

How to read this: Think of P/E as “dollars paid for each $1 of expected card value.” 1.00x means the box price and the current mid EV are the same. 1.25x means you are paying $125 for each $100 of expected value. 0.90x means you are paying $90 for each $100 of expected value. Lower is cheaper relative to EV, but EV is only an average estimate, not guaranteed profit.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —

Each bar groups simulated box totals after booster and enabled topper slots are drawn, then Sift is applied to hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV × 30 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees per box (before acquisition cost) (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00
Includes Box Topper EV per box: $0.00 (included)

Purchase EV & Net Proceeds

Purchase expected value and financial summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees (before acquisition cost)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI (enter cost)	—	—	—

Content Snapshot

Play Booster and Topper Snapshot

Each box resolves all 420 in-pack game-card positions and both outside-shell topper cards before enabled-set toggles or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 30 / box
Cards: 14 / pack
Booster total: 420 cards
Rows: Loading

Pack and Topper Structure

The custom Aetherdrift model keeps booster slots and the two-card Box Topper as separate drawn shells.

Common block7 cards / pack

A Special Guest replaces one common in approximately 1.5% of packs.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Main-set nonfoil uncommon outcomes.

Rare or mythic rare1 card / pack

Main-set and eligible borderless rare-slot outcomes.

Wildcard1 card / pack

Common, uncommon, rare/mythic, and eligible borderless branches sum exactly.

Traditional foil1 card / pack

Main-set and eligible borderless foil outcomes.

Land slot1 card / pack

Basic and common dual lands, with the model's foil and full-art splits.

First-Place full-art basic1 / box topper

Driver's-Seat and Panorama foil basic branches form the first outside-shell card.

First-Place rare or mythic1 / box topper

Weighted main-set, borderless, and Special Guest foil pools form the second topper card.

The Box Topper toggle is enabled by default. Topper cards are drawn first and then Sift determines whether each hit contributes EV; disabling the topper does not backfill booster rows.

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Modeled card rows with set, treatment, value, seller fees, and average boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total (Expected copies / box) — included sets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total (Expected / box) — all modeled rows (game cards)							0.00
Gap to 420 cards/box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift & set toggles; exclude non‑game items) — also shows outside‑shell Box Topper sanity

Box Topper breakdown (toggled by “Box Toppers — include in EV”)

Each Box Topper contains two First‑Place foil cards: (A) one full‑art basic (Driver’s‑Seat vs Panorama) and (B) one rare/mythic from the First‑Place pools (main set, borderless, or Special Guests). Probabilities are applied per bucket, then split evenly within each bucket.

Modeled Box Topper card values and average boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Treatment	Value ($)	Boxes / copy
Total EV from Box Toppers (per box)					$0.00

Bucket	Expected / box
Total expected / box	0.0000
Gap to 2.0000 / box	0.0000