Palworld OFFICIAL CARD GAME / Booster Box
Dawn of Palpagos Booster Box [BP01] EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Model scope: Modeled configuration: 12 English seven-card boosters, totaling 84 physical cards. The 161 retained ordinary and parallel printings exclude Soul (SSS) and the god-pack branch before drawing. Rarity frequencies use two self-reported case totals and a separate pack ledger; fixed core slots, bonus placement and equal per-card weights are modeling approximations rather than factory guarantees. The current visible community case reports do not state language or printing wave. The retained Japanese-to-English policy is a modeling assumption, not proof of report language or measured English rates. Complete draws precede Sift and pool filters, without reroll or backfill.
Model scope: Modeled configuration: 12 English seven-card boosters, totaling 84 physical cards.
- Release
- July 30, 2026
- Market scope
- en / English edition; TCGplayer US pricing / English edition; TCGplayer listing combines initial printing and reprint price rows
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Publisher + empirical collation
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidencePublisher + empirical collationReviewed September 3, 2026 Historical Low-price reviewReviewed ordinary printing scopeHistorical Low coverage; current snapshot below Chase policyNo-chase baseline1 chase family excluded
Generated model: /data-static/palworld/dawn-of-palpagos/models/dawn-of-palpagos-booster-box.json
Publisher + empirical collation
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher + empirical collation reviewed September 3, 2026.
Empirical sample
- Sample unit
- Case
- Sample size
- 2
- Independent cases
- 2
- Observation window
- Not disclosed
- Region
- Japanese observations used for English collation; TCGplayer US prices
- Case correlations
- Not preserved
- Method
- The box keeps the publisher-confirmed 84 physical cards: 36 Common, 24 Uncommon, 12 Rare, a modeled core of 4 Double Rare, 2 Super Rare, and 1 Over Super Rare, plus five case-calibrated bonus positions. Two complete 12-box case reports pooled 97 Double Rare, 52 Super Rare, 26 Over Super Rare, 4 Super Parallel, and 2 Super Special Parallel cards across 288 packs; the remaining 107 bonus outcomes are assigned to Uncommon. A separate 121-pack ledger supports the dominant 3 Common, 2 Uncommon, 1 Rare structure. Every included card has equal positive weight within its reviewed rarity pool. Soul (SSS) and the god-pack branch are absent before drawing.
Sources
- Dawn of Palpagos official English product page - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-03)
- Official English launch product specification - Bushiroad (accessed 2026-09-03)
- TCGCSV category 91 group 24842; exact box 713786 - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-09-03) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- BP01 closed-world SKU, treatment, finish, and SSS review - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-03)
- BP01 best-evidence pack ledger and pooled complete-case model - The Expected Value review of community observations (accessed 2026-09-03)
Limitations
- This calculator is labeled Best Evidence / SSS Excluded. Bushiroad does not publish BP01 pull rates, so the model is an empirical estimate rather than an official guarantee.
- The empirical sample observation interval was not disclosed.
- The seeded 4 Double Rare, 2 Super Rare, and 1 Over Super Rare core is a box-level approximation that preserves the pooled two-case expectations; individual boxes can differ.
- Within-box placement, rare multi-hit pack placement, and case correlations are not preserved by the calculator.
- The 121-pack ledger has one neighboring six-row/eight-row transcription imbalance. Its 847-card total is preserved and only its aggregate structural pattern is used.
- English collation is modeled from Japanese observations under the owner-approved project policy for games without an explicit English equivalent. Do not reuse the rates if English packaging or product configuration materially differs.
- Soul (SSS) and the god-pack branch do not exist in the baseline draw. The unknown chase frequency therefore cannot occupy or reduce any of the 84 modeled card positions.
- Every supported card receives equal positive weight within its reviewed rarity pool because no publisher print-sheet or card-specific weights are available.
- Current TCGplayer IDs combine initial printing and reprint prices; the calculator cannot select a printing wave.
- All 161 retained printings were positively quoted in the September 3, 2026 Low-price review. Current missing quotes do not remove identities or change their weights. Soul (SSS) remains excluded by the documented baseline policy, independent of price availability.
- Simulation ordering is draw all 84 modeled cards first, then apply Sift or user filters. Filtering never rerolls or backfills a completed draw.
Local price snapshots
Low snapshot coverage (historical source review)
The historical Low-price coverage below describes the original source review, not current Market availability. Missing selected-source prices remain unknown; current coverage is checked from the loaded generated snapshot.
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 3, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Soul (SSS)
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 7
- Packs per booster box
- 12
- Booster Boxes per case
- 12
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Box EV × 12 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster boxes: 0 · Price/booster box: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster box after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.