One Piece Card Game / Booster Box
Romance Dawn Booster Box EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
- Release
- December 2, 2022
- Market scope
- en / North America / English North America; blue-bottom and white-bottom sealed listings share one card pool and collation model
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — Japanese collation proxyReviewed September 3, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline2 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/one-piece/romance-dawn/models/romance-dawn-booster-box.json
Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy reviewed September 3, 2026.
Sources
- Romance Dawn [OP-01] official English product page - Bandai Co., Ltd. (accessed 2026-09-03)
- TCGCSV category 68 group 3188, sealed product 450086 - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-09-03) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy and ordinary-pool classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-03)
- OP-01 English pack contents and DON!! identities - One Piece Player (accessed 2026-09-03)
- English OP-01 alternate DON!! box-rate discussion - Reddit community observation (accessed 2026-09-03)
Limitations
- collation.cardsPerPack and collation.packsPerProduct: the product uses 12 cards per pack and 24 packs per English booster box; those physical wrapper counts do not establish rarity-slot probabilities.
- collation.caseStructure: box-level hit counts and display/case correlations are unresolved for the exact English North America printing.
- evidence.sample: null because no reviewed observation provides a complete, attributable sample with exact unit, size, method, North America printing, and observation interval.
- pricing.coverage: exact TCGCSV identity is known, but modeled row and expected-mass coverage have not been measured.
- market.printing: Booster Box is kept separate by exact TCGCSV sealed-product identity; the Bandai page does not document that marketplace wave distinction.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-09-03: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy: exact English wrapper and card-price identities are combined with an owner-approved Japanese-product collation proxy because a complete English rate ledger is not published. This is an estimate, not a factory guarantee.
- Only booster-pack slot counts and rarity probabilities are proxied. Card identities, treatments, TCGplayer Low prices, sealed-product identity, language, region, release date, and any explicitly modeled fixed bonus come from the exact English release.
- The proxy is first-order and product-family-specific. No display or case correlation is inherited, and no target is used as a donor for another target.
- Within each retained English rarity/treatment pool, exact positively priced card SKUs use equal positive weight where publisher sheet weights are unavailable.
- Assumption-only per-pack proxy: 7 Common, 3 Uncommon, 1 guaranteed Rare, and 1 Rare-or-higher slot weighted 15/24 Rare, 4/24 Leader, 4/24 Super Rare, and 1/24 Secret Rare. Bandai does not publish this exact OP-01 English game-card slot recipe and no qualifying English sample establishes it. The English wrapper contains those 12 game cards plus one separate DON!! card, and the booster box additionally includes one publisher-documented Box Topper drawn from six exact English parallel cards.
- Replace this proxy when a complete, attributable English collation ledger or publisher rate table becomes available for the exact release.
- Bandai states that every English OP-01 booster box includes one randomly selected parallel Box Topper from six types. That fixed English bonus is retained outside the Japanese-proxy pack slots and the six exact English Box Topper SKUs receive equal weight because Bandai does not publish individual selection weights.
- English OP-01 packs contain 12 game cards plus one separate DON!! card. The 12-card wrapper label therefore remains the game-card count, while embedded pack EV includes all 13 value-bearing cards.
- The OP-01 DON!! branch is modeled as 23 Film RED DON!! cards plus one Manga DON!! per 24-pack box. The pack-plus-DON!! composition and the two exact English identities are documented; the one-parallel-per-box split is a community-observed first-order assumption rather than a publisher factory guarantee.
- The displayed OP-01 box contains 313 modeled physical cards: 288 booster game cards, 24 DON!! cards, and one Box Topper. Box EV includes all 313 cards; embedded pack EV includes the 12 game cards plus the average DON!! card and excludes only the box-only topper.
- The 7 Common / 3 Uncommon / guaranteed Rare / Rare-or-higher recipe and its 15/4/4/1 rarity split are an owner-approved Japanese-proxy prior, not a publisher-supported OP-01 English collation guarantee.
- OP-01 keeps one public calculator because its English card pool and collation model are shared. The blue-bottom and white-bottom boxes remain separate sealed-price identities and do not create duplicate calculator routes.
- No-chase redraw policy approved 2026-09-03: Curio, Enchanted, alternate-art, parallel, showcase, serialized, signature, premium-rarity, promotional, and any other card or treatment without a supported pull rate are excluded. A chase hit is redrawn from the applicable supported ordinary pool, so excluded cards occupy no modeled outcome.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 4, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Cards outside the supported ordinary recipe
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster box
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Box EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster boxes: 0 · Price/booster box: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster box after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.