One Piece Card Game / Booster Box
Memorial Collection Booster Box EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
- Release
- May 3, 2024
- Market scope
- en / North America / English North America booster box
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — Japanese collation proxyReviewed September 4, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline2 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/one-piece/memorial-collection/models/memorial-collection-booster-box.json
Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy reviewed September 4, 2026.
Sources
- Memorial Collection [EB-01] official English product page - Bandai Co., Ltd. (accessed 2026-09-03)
- TCGCSV category 68 group 23333, sealed product 521161 - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-09-03) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy and ordinary-pool classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English EB01 ordinary and variant card checklist - Bandai Co., Ltd. (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Japanese EB01 six-card wrapper and published roster categories - Bandai Co., Ltd. (accessed 2026-09-04)
- First-hand Japanese EB01 three-box selected-hit opening, not a complete rarity ledger - Obake via Uribimog (accessed 2026-09-04)
Limitations
- collation.cardsPerPack and collation.packsPerProduct: the product uses 12 cards per pack and 24 packs per English booster box; those physical wrapper counts do not establish rarity-slot probabilities.
- collation.caseStructure: box-level hit counts and display/case correlations are unresolved for the exact English North America printing.
- evidence.sample: null because no reviewed observation provides a complete, attributable sample with exact unit, size, method, North America printing, and observation interval.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-09-04: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- EB01 assumption-only Japanese collation proxy: exact English wrapper and card-price identities are retained, but no complete EB01 English or Japanese rarity ledger was established. Expected box marginals of 240 Common, 39 Rare, 4 Leader, 4 Super Rare and 1 regular Secret Rare total 288 physical positions. These are explicit generic assumptions, including regular Secret Rare conditioning, not measured EB01 pull rates or a factory guarantee. No other set's observations are used as EB01 evidence.
- The exact English ordinary roster is EB01-001 through EB01-061: 28 Common, 21 Rare, 3 Leader, 8 Super Rare and 1 Secret Rare. C and Leader use Normal finish; R, SR and SEC use Foil. Every retained exact English SKU requires a positive TCGplayer Low price; missing ordinary prices fail classification rather than silently shrink the pool. Equal weights within each retained rarity/finish pool are assumptions, not checklist-derived pull rates or publisher sheet weights. No Japanese card prices enter this English model.
- The reviewed first-hand Japanese EB01 three-box opening published January 28, 2024 shows only selected SR, SEC and parallel results. It does not enumerate all Common, Rare or Leader cards, give a full pack sequence, printing wave or exact opening interval. It corroborates product identity and the presence of premium variants, not a complete rate ledger. The Japanese publisher's six-card wrapper and roster categories likewise do not establish English twelve-card slot probabilities. No case seeding or guaranteed box hits are inferred.
- Each synthetic twelve-card pack draws ten Common positions, one guaranteed Rare and one upgrade at 15/24 Rare, 4/24 Leader, 4/24 Super Rare and 1/24 regular Secret Rare. Slot placement and all rarity probabilities are assumptions. Independent draws preserve expected marginals, not guaranteed box counts, no-duplicate rules or display/case correlations. Draw all 288 positions before Sift and user filters; filters never backfill. Embedded pack EV is box EV divided by 24.
- All 19 exact unsupported alternate-art/Manga SKUs are absent before drawing, with retained outcomes normalized within their applicable rarity slot. Regular Tony Tony.Chopper 544530 and regular Mr.2.Bon.Kurei (Bentham) 544601 remain eligible; their alternate-art/Manga SKUs 544531, 544532 and 544602 never occupy zero-EV spots. This no-chase baseline is intentional because EB01 has no separate collector product. No DON!! card is published in this product's roster or present in the exact English group; do not import another release's ordinary or Gold DON!!, invent a thirteenth card, or add an unsupported box topper. Purchase, tournament and release-event promotions are not booster-box contents without exact inclusion evidence.
- No-chase redraw policy approved 2026-09-04: Curio, Enchanted, alternate-art, parallel, showcase, serialized, signature, premium-rarity, promotional, and any other card or treatment without a supported pull rate are excluded. A chase hit is redrawn from the applicable supported ordinary pool, so excluded cards occupy no modeled outcome.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 4, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Manga alternate-art cards
- Unsupported alternate-art cards
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster box
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Box EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster boxes: 0 · Price/booster box: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster box after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.