Disney Lorcana / Booster Display
Fabled 24-Pack Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model.
Compare the modeled EV range with your entered product cost to review estimated ROI. This planning metric is not a guaranteed return.
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
- Release
- August 29, 2025
- Market scope
- English / North America / Standard retail English sampled in Halifax, Nova Scotia; manufacturer printing wave undisclosed
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model file
/data-static/lorcana/fabled/models/booster-display-no-chase.json
Publisher + empirical collation
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher + empirical collation reviewed July 23, 2026.
Empirical sample
- Sample unit
- Pack
- Sample size
- 1056
- Independent cases
- 11
- Observed
- Not reported by the source
- Region
- Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada (English-language retail product)
- Case correlations
- Not preserved
- Method
- Empirical collation from The Deck Box Halifax: 44 booster boxes / 1056 packs were opened for singles and card-level counts were published. The model preserves aggregate Normal and Cold Foil R/SR/L counts exactly, removes disclosed premium families, and does not infer uncounted Common/Uncommon foils. Manufacturer printing wave and actual opening interval were not disclosed.
Sources
- Disney Lorcana — Fabled - Disney Lorcana / Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Fabled booster display - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Disney Lorcana Booster Packs and Boxes - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- The Deck Box Lorcana opening workbook — Fabled tab - The Deck Box Halifax (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Fabled opening sample disclosure - The Deck Box Halifax (accessed 2026-07-20)
- TCGCSV category 71 groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Fabled products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Owner-directed ordinary-pool no-chase redraw classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-23)
Limitations
- Empirical collation: 1,056 packs (44 displays) from one Halifax store. Manufacturer printing wave and the actual observation interval are undisclosed. The supporting opening post was published 2025-08-30; that is a publication date, not an asserted opening interval.
- Empirical observation start (observedFrom): undisclosed by the source.
- Empirical observation end (observedThrough): undisclosed by the source.
- Empirical sample printing wave (wave): not reported by the source.
- Empirical sample printing detail (printingDetail): not reported by the source.
- The source counted 2,103 Normal R/SR/L cards and 231 Cold Foil R/SR/L cards. Common, Uncommon, and Common/Uncommon foil observations were intentionally not counted; publisher-fixed nonfoil Common/Uncommon slots remain, while unmeasured low-rarity foils are absent rather than zero-valued outcomes.
- After removing premium rarities, the ordinary R/SR/L total is 2,103 versus 2,112 publisher slots (-9, -0.43%); raw counts are preserved.
- Expected display counts are the empirical per-pack rates multiplied by the publisher's exact 24-pack wrapper. The aggregate sample does not preserve within-display or case correlation, so only EV—not hit-count variance or guarantees—is approved.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-07-23: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- No-chase redraw policy approved 2026-07-23: Curio, Enchanted, alternate-art, parallel, showcase, serialized, signature, premium-rarity, promotional, and any other card or treatment without a supported pull rate are excluded. A chase hit is redrawn from the applicable supported ordinary pool, so excluded cards occupy no modeled outcome.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Measured row coverage
- 100.0%
- Measured modeled mass
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- July 23, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Curio, Enchanted, Epic, and Iconic chase cards
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
- Unsupported premium or foil treatments
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster display
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.