Disney Lorcana / Booster Display
Archazia's Island 24-Pack Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Reviewed conditional foil scope: This model conditions foil positions on measured Rare, Super Rare, and Legendary foils. Common/Uncommon foils were not counted in the opening sample and remain outside this scoped model. Uniform weights within each rarity and finish are assumptions, not factory guarantees.
- Release
- March 7, 2025
- Market scope
- English / North America / Standard retail English sampled in Halifax, Nova Scotia; manufacturer printing wave undisclosed
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Publisher + empirical collation
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidencePublisher + empirical collationReviewed July 23, 2026 Historical price review (282 rows)100.0% modeled massOriginal Low-price review Chase policyNo-chase baseline4 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/lorcana/archazias-island/models/booster-display-no-chase.json
Publisher + empirical collation
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher + empirical collation reviewed July 23, 2026.
Empirical sample
- Sample unit
- Pack
- Sample size
- 1056
- Observation window
- Not reported by the source
- Region
- Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada (English-language retail product)
- Case correlations
- Not preserved
- Method
- Empirical rarity proportions from The Deck Box Halifax: card-level counts imply 44 booster boxes / 1056 packs. Normal Rare/Super Rare/Legendary proportions are normalized to two positions per pack; observed high-rarity Cold Foil proportions are normalized to one conditional foil position. Common/Uncommon foils and premium families are outside this documented conditional scope. Printing wave and opening interval were not disclosed.
Sources
- Disney Lorcana — Archazia's Island - Disney Lorcana / Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Archazia's Island booster display - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Disney Lorcana Booster Packs and Boxes - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- The Deck Box Lorcana opening workbook — Archazia's Island tab - The Deck Box Halifax (accessed 2026-07-20)
- TCGCSV category 71 groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Archazia's Island products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Owner-directed ordinary-pool no-chase redraw classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-23)
Limitations
- Empirical collation: 1,056 packs (44 displays) from one Halifax store. Manufacturer printing wave and the actual observation interval are undisclosed. No separate dated opening post was located for this tab.
- Empirical observation start (observedFrom): undisclosed by the source.
- Empirical observation end (observedThrough): undisclosed by the source.
- Empirical sample printing wave (wave): not reported by the source.
- Empirical sample printing detail (printingDetail): not reported by the source.
- The source counted 2,121 Normal R/SR/L cards and 231 Cold Foil R/SR/L cards. Common, Uncommon, and Common/Uncommon foil observations were intentionally not counted; publisher-fixed nonfoil Common/Uncommon slots remain, while unmeasured low-rarity foils are absent rather than zero-valued outcomes.
- The tab note is copied from Azurite Sea and incorrectly says 42 boxes/1,008 packs. The Archazia card rows and every displayed per-box average independently resolve a 44-box/1,056-pack denominator. Its ordinary total is 2,121 versus 2,112 publisher slots (+9, +0.43%); raw counts are preserved.
- Expected display counts use the publisher’s 24-pack wrapper and normalized slot proportions: 144 Common, 72 Uncommon, 48 Normal Rare/Super Rare/Legendary, and 24 conditional high-rarity Cold Foil cards. The foil position is conditioned on the measured R/SR/L pool; it does not represent the factory’s complete foil distribution or a guarantee. Within-display/case correlation was not established; simulated bands describe the documented independent-draw model, not factory hit-count guarantees.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-07-23: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- No-chase redraw policy approved 2026-07-23: Curio, Enchanted, alternate-art, parallel, showcase, serialized, signature, premium-rarity, promotional, and any other card or treatment without a supported pull rate are excluded. A chase hit is redrawn from the applicable supported ordinary pool, so excluded cards occupy no modeled outcome.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- August 28, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
The historical Low-price review above covers the original 282-row snapshot. It is not current price availability or Market coverage; current coverage is checked below when data loads. No missing quote is assigned an invented value.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
- Curio, Enchanted, Epic, and Iconic chase cards
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
- Unsupported premium or foil treatments
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster display
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.