Disney Lorcana / Booster Display

Archazia's Island 24-Pack Booster Display EV Calculator

Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model.

Compare the modeled EV range with your entered product cost to review estimated ROI. This planning metric is not a guaranteed return.

Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.

Release
March 7, 2025
Market scope
English / North America / Standard retail English sampled in Halifax, Nova Scotia; manufacturer printing wave undisclosed
Default singles price
TCGplayer Low
Model file
/data-static/lorcana/archazias-island/models/booster-display-no-chase.json

Publisher + empirical collation

Evidence

This calculator is based on Publisher + empirical collation reviewed July 23, 2026.

Empirical sample

Sample unit
Pack
Sample size
1056
Observed
Not reported by the source
Region
Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada (English-language retail product)
Case correlations
Not preserved
Method
Empirical collation from The Deck Box Halifax: 44 booster boxes / 1056 packs were opened for singles and card-level counts were published. The model preserves aggregate Normal and Cold Foil R/SR/L counts exactly, removes disclosed premium families, and does not infer uncounted Common/Uncommon foils. Manufacturer printing wave and actual opening interval were not disclosed.

Sources

Limitations

  • Empirical collation: 1,056 packs (44 displays) from one Halifax store. Manufacturer printing wave and the actual observation interval are undisclosed. No separate dated opening post was located for this tab.
  • Empirical observation start (observedFrom): undisclosed by the source.
  • Empirical observation end (observedThrough): undisclosed by the source.
  • Empirical sample printing wave (wave): not reported by the source.
  • Empirical sample printing detail (printingDetail): not reported by the source.
  • The source counted 2,121 Normal R/SR/L cards and 231 Cold Foil R/SR/L cards. Common, Uncommon, and Common/Uncommon foil observations were intentionally not counted; publisher-fixed nonfoil Common/Uncommon slots remain, while unmeasured low-rarity foils are absent rather than zero-valued outcomes.
  • The tab note is copied from Azurite Sea and incorrectly says 42 boxes/1,008 packs. The Archazia card rows and every displayed per-box average independently resolve a 44-box/1,056-pack denominator. Its ordinary total is 2,121 versus 2,112 publisher slots (+9, +0.43%); raw counts are preserved.
  • Expected display counts are the empirical per-pack rates multiplied by the publisher's exact 24-pack wrapper. The aggregate sample does not preserve within-display or case correlation, so only EV—not hit-count variance or guarantees—is approved.
  • Modeling policy approved 2026-07-23: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
  • No-chase redraw policy approved 2026-07-23: Curio, Enchanted, alternate-art, parallel, showcase, serialized, signature, premium-rarity, promotional, and any other card or treatment without a supported pull rate are excluded. A chase hit is redrawn from the applicable supported ordinary pool, so excluded cards occupy no modeled outcome.
  • Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.

Local price snapshots

Pricing

TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.

Measured row coverage
100.0%
Measured modeled mass
100.0%
Coverage observed
July 23, 2026
Low-price source
Available Via Tcgcsv

No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.

TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.

No-chase model

Chase Exclusions

Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.

  • Alternate-art, parallel, and promotional cards
  • Curio, Enchanted, Epic, and Iconic chase cards
  • Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
  • Unsupported premium or foil treatments

Product snapshot

Modeled Product Structure

Cards per pack
12
Packs per booster display
24
Draw order
Complete draw, then filters

All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.

Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.

Calculator Settings

Selling Fees

Price and Sift

EV RangeMonte CarloAdvanced

Purchase EV

Booster Display EV

Per-product Low, Mid, and High expected value from one recalculated simulation.
MetricLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Seller fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after purchase$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price (Mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Estimated ROI

Purchase Low, Mid, and High EV and estimated ROI values from the same recalculated simulation.
MetricLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
Modeled ROI vs entered cost------

booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00

How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.

Sealed Price / EV

Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.

Low sealed marketplace price compared with the current Mid break-even price.
MarketplaceProduct priceBreak-even priceP/EBasis

Simulation Results

Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.

Confidence band: --

Expected contribution

Card Value Breakdown

Modeled card rows, current values, fees, and expected products per copy.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValueSeller feesProducts / copy
Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift0.00
Preparing calculator...

The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.