Disney Lorcana / Booster Display
Ursula's Return 24-Pack Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
- Release
- May 17, 2024
- Market scope
- English / North America / Standard retail English; manufacturer printing wave unspecified
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Best Evidence — English opening marginal assumptions
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — English opening marginal assumptionsReviewed September 4, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline2 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/lorcana/ursulas-return/models/booster-display-no-chase.json
Best Evidence — English opening marginal assumptions
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — English opening marginal assumptions reviewed September 4, 2026.
Sources
- Disney Lorcana — Ursula's Return - Disney Lorcana / Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Ursula's Return booster display - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Disney Lorcana Booster Packs and Boxes - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- TCGCSV category 71 groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Ursula's Return products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — English opening marginal assumptions and exact ordinary-pool classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English Ursula's Return release date and pack recipe - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English publisher gallery: 204 ordinary cards with Regular and Foiled variants; 18 Enchanted and three separate Deep Trouble variants - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Deep Trouble fixed decks and oversized/scenario/victory cards are a separate product - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- First-hand Ursula's Return one-box absolute rarity totals; high finishes not separated - Reddit / LorcanaCollectors opening author (accessed 2026-09-04)
- First-hand Ursula's Return 192-pack aggregate: normal/foil Legendary and Enchanted only - lorealleystore (accessed 2026-09-04)
Limitations
- Best Evidence — English opening marginal assumptions: the publisher fixes the English twelve-card recipe (6 Common, 3 Uncommon, two Rare/Super Rare/Legendary, one foil of random rarity) and 24-pack display. No exact publisher rarity odds or complete Ursula's Return finish-specific opening ledger was established. No Japanese observations, prices or another set's pull counts are used.
- A first-hand May 18, 2024 Ursula's Return single-box report lists 156 Common, 78 Uncommon, 38 Rare, 12 Super Rare and 4 Legendary including duplicates, totaling 288 cards, with no Enchanted. Against the fixed 144 normal Common and 72 normal Uncommon positions, infer 12 foil Common and 6 foil Uncommon. The report does not separate high-rarity finishes and cites set populations including non-booster variants; only its absolute opening totals enter this explicitly conditional derivation.
- A separate first-hand lorealleystore report dated May 21, 2024 records 192 Ursula's Return packs, 34 normal Legendary, 2 foil Legendary and 2 Enchanted. Use normal Legendary 34/384, and allocate the remaining normal Rare/Super Rare positions in the separate box's finish-combined 38:12 ratio. Assume this same 19:6 Rare/Super Rare ratio for the unresolved foil remainder. Applying a finish-combined ratio to each finish is a modeling assumption, not an observed finish split. The sources are not merged into a fictitious 216-pack ledger.
- Before chase removal, assumed foil probabilities are 1/2 Common, 1/4 Uncommon, 209/1200 Rare, 11/200 Super Rare, 1/96 Legendary and 1/96 Enchanted. Assume Enchanted replaces the foil position; remove its branch and divide all five retained outcomes by 95/96 before drawing. Normal high positions become 133/192 Rare, 7/32 Super Rare and 17/192 Legendary. Samples are small, self-reported and printing/region mixes unspecified; applying their marginals to an English North American display is an assumption, not a factory guarantee.
- All 204 ordinary English numbers 1-204 require both exact Normal and Cold Foil SKUs with positive TCGplayer Low, totaling 408 pairs: 72 Common, 54 Uncommon, 48 Rare, 18 Super Rare and 12 Legendary in each finish. The live publisher gallery explicitly supplies Regular and Foiled variants for all 204; its SUPER label maps to Super Rare. Equal within-pool weights, interchangeable high slots and independent draws are assumptions; no duplicate restriction or display/case covariance is preserved. Missing ordinary identities, finishes, metadata or prices fail closed, with no fallback or invented price.
- All eighteen Enchanted Holofoil SKUs numbered 205-222 are absent before drawing. Ordinary Mrs. Potts - Enchanted Teapot 549620 and Tuk Tuk - Curious Partner 550613 remain eligible in both finishes; name substrings do not make them Enchanted or Curio treatments. Deep Trouble-exclusive alternate identities 223-225, its oversized/scenario/victory cards, starter bonuses and puzzle/QR advertising inserts are not booster game-card outcomes. This intentional no-chase baseline has no separate collector booster. Draw all 288 playable cards before Sift or user filters; filters never backfill. Only the display is public; embedded pack EV is display EV divided by 24.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 4, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Curio, Enchanted, Epic, and Iconic chase cards
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster display
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.