Disney Lorcana / Booster Display
Rise of the Floodborn 24-Pack Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
- Release
- November 17, 2023
- Market scope
- English / North America / Original 2023 English card-roster assumption; sealed listing does not identify print wave and later errata mixtures are not modeled
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Best Evidence — Reported opening estimate
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — Reported opening estimateReviewed September 4, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/lorcana/rise-of-the-floodborn/models/booster-display-no-chase.json
Best Evidence — Reported opening estimate
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — Reported opening estimate reviewed September 4, 2026.
Sources
- Disney Lorcana — Rise of the Floodborn - Disney Lorcana / Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Rise of the Floodborn booster display - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Disney Lorcana Booster Packs and Boxes - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- TCGCSV category 71 groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Rise of the Floodborn products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — Reported opening estimate and exact original-roster classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English Floodborn pack contents and separate Disney 100 collector exclusives - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Floodborn English 24-pack display; every ordinary card available as foil - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Floodborn original 204-card English checklist; identity not odds - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English set 2 official gallery: 204 ordinary numbers, rarities and Regular/Foiled variants; 12 Enchanted - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- BenXC Floodborn one-box report; inferred conditional rarity ratios with inconsistent headline totals - BenXC (accessed 2026-09-04)
- First-hand 176-pack Floodborn aggregate; its set row only - lorealleystore (accessed 2026-09-04)
- Bucky errata and future-printing distinction - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
Limitations
- Best Evidence — Reported opening estimate: Ravensburger establishes the English twelve-card pack (6 Common, 3 Uncommon, two Rare/Super Rare/Legendary cards, one foil of any rarity), 24 packs and 288 playable cards per display. There is no guaranteed display-only playable bonus. All five ordinary foil rarities remain. Exact publisher rarity probabilities, printing-wave distributions and pack/display/case correlations are not established.
- Use only Rise of the Floodborn observations. The first-hand lorealleystore report dated May 21, 2024 has 176 Floodborn packs, 33 nonfoil Legendary, seven foil Legendary and one Enchanted. Assume exchangeable nonfoil high-rarity positions, giving Legendary=33/352. Its residual 319/352 is split Rare:Super Rare=29:14 using the separate BenXC one-box report. BenXC's headline 264-total/78-Uncommon counts are inconsistent; its explicit unique-plus-duplicate subcounts reconstruct 144 Common, 72 Uncommon, 29 Rare, 14 Super Rare, 5 Legendary nonfoils and 24 foils. The 29:14 conditional ratio is an inference from those detailed subcounts, not a complete audited pack ledger.
- Assume Enchanted occupies the foil position. Remove the one observed Enchanted before drawing, retaining foil Legendary=7/175. Allocate the remaining 168/175 using BenXC's separately enumerated 14 Common, 6 Uncommon, 3 Rare, 1 Super Rare foils, giving final ordinary foil probabilities 56%, 24%, 12%, 4%, 4%. This hybrid conditional estimate does not pool observations or establish a joint distribution. The English-language posts do not establish physical card language, sales territory or printing wave; applying their Floodborn marginals to the English wrapper is an explicit transport assumption, not verified English or Japanese collation. Simulated spread is not measured pack/box variance.
- The separate January 2024 200-pack foil report lists percentages totaling 99%, leaving 1% unreported. It is not treated as a complete 200-card ledger and supplies no weights. No First Chapter, Inklands, Ursula, Japanese-opening or cross-set aggregate pull counts are borrowed. Equal card weights within each retained rarity/finish pool are assumptions, not checklist-derived rarity odds or publisher sheet weights.
- The original English roster is 204 exact card numbers and 408 Normal/Cold Foil pairs: 72 Common, 54 Uncommon, 48 Rare, 18 Super Rare and 12 Legendary per finish. Require every pair to have positive exact TCGplayer Low; missing identity, metadata, subtype or price fails closed. No Normal/Cold Foil fallback, Holofoil substitution, market value, foreign price or invented value is allowed.
- Printing assumption: model the original 204 English listings, including Elsa 39/204 product 516333 and Bucky 73/204 product 519506. Later errata Elsa 618771 and Bucky 597095 are separate printings, not extra ordinary card numbers or rare chase. Bucky's publisher errata says future printings will be corrected, but no booster mixing rate is established. The exact sealed listing does not identify its print wave, so this estimate is not certified for reprint-wave mixtures. Do not silently treat the unpriced Normal Bucky errata as a priced original substitute.
- Remove Enchanted 205-216, later-printing variants outside the declared original-roster assumption, puzzle inserts, Disney 100 exclusive variants, oversized cards and external promos before drawing. The no-chase baseline is intentional because this release has no separate collector booster. Normalize the retained foil slot; no chase occupies a zero-EV position. Draw all 12 playable pack cards or 288 display cards, then apply Sift and user filters without rerolling or backfilling. Only the display is public; embedded pack EV is display EV / 24. Puzzle/advertising inserts are not a thirteenth playable card or a priced bonus.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 4, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Curio, Enchanted, Epic, and Iconic chase cards
- Later errata printings outside the original-roster assumption; not rarity chase
- Puzzle advertising inserts; not playable booster cards
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster display
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.